These four large sample surveys from Quinnipiac....
COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 44
MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 42
MINNESOTA: Obama 54 - McCain 37
WISCONSIN: Obama 52 - McCain 39
suggest that the make-up and mood of the 2008 presidential electorate is right now perfectly trimmed to embrace Barack Obama. As Quinnipiac puts it, "[a]n emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads." As with every statewide poll, we must wave the caution flag: these numbers can and probably will change over time.
At least the McCain campaign knows who they can target: white conservative independents, especially men. But even as McCain performs solidly with that group, the composition of the electorate is changing so much that they can't help him. (Obama, for example, is doing well with Hispanics but is doing extremely well with younger Hispanics.) Obama wins independents; he does weakest among them in Michigan, but Republicans in that state are demoralized. Some of the more interesting nuggets: In Colorado, Obama and McCain split the white vote and almost split the vote of those 55 and older; same with Michigan. The gender gap in Minnesota is huge: Obama leads by 26 points among women and seven points among men and double digits among white voters. In Wisconsin, Obama even leads among white men -- 51 to 40%. The polls have margins of error of no more than +/- 2.5%.
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