Yet More On That South Carolina Poll

A veteran observer of Democratic politics points out: ** Four of the last six polls gave Sen. Hillary Clinton a lead of at least 15 points in SC. ** If you increase the percentage of black voters in the sample, since Clinton has a bigger lead among blacks than among whites, her margin would be greater. ** The 2004 exit poll shows that whites made up about 51% of the Democratic primary electorate. Recent SC polling I've found: This latest one, with HRC at 43%, Obama at 27%, Edwards at 17%. ARG polled June 26-30 and had Hillary at 37%, Edwards at 22 percent and Obama at 21%. Mason Dixon, which polled from June 13 to June 15, had Obama with a 9 point lead over Clinton, 34% to 25%. A May 31 PPP poll gave Obama a lead within the margin of error. And a May 16 Winthrop/ETV poll gave Clinton an eight point lead over Obama. ARG's May sample gave Clinton a 16 point lead over Obama, with Edwards in second place.

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http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2007/07/yet-more-on-that-south-carolina-poll/50040/