Admittedly, this is grounded in my crude and stereotypical view of how the Republican Party works, but I think
Jon Chait's case that Fred Thompson is the likely GOP nominee is pretty convincing. What's more, he's a pretty solid general election candidate, though 2008 just isn't an especially promising year for a conventional conservative.
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2007/06/loving-fred/42891/