| [an error occurred while processing this directive] |  |  |
 |  | |
| ||
| |||||||
| |||||||
|
| ||||||
| |||||||
| |||||||
 Recent commentary from National Journal: Legal Affairs: Bush Has The Wrong Remedy to Court-Imposed Gay Marriage (March 16, 2004) There are ways to get the courts out of the gay-marriage business without tying the hands of future voting majorities who may see gay marriage as good for us all. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Media: Be Not Wicked (March 16, 2004) Wickedness used to be a core value of American journalism and great newspapers. But not any more. By William Powers. Wealth of Nations: The Jobless Recovery: A Cause for Concern, Not Alarm (March 16, 2004) It's fair to ask whether the Bush administration has done as much as it could to cushion workers from the economy's growing pains. And the answer is no. By Clive Crook. Social Studies: On Same-Sex Marriage, Bush Failed the Public and Himself (March 10, 2004) President Bush's support of a constitutional ban on gay marriage amounts to a failure of moral and political vision, and of empathy and imagination. By Jonathan Rauch. Legal Affairs: Should Foreign Law Be Used to Interpret Our Constitution? (March 10, 2004) Conservatives are not alone in worrying about the dangers to our democracy of importing laws and constitutional principles crafted by intellectual elites abroad. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Political Pulse: The Nader Calculation (March 10, 2004) Ralph Nader draws a different lesson from 2000 than most others do. He thinks the election gave him clout. By William Schneider. Media: A Controversial Primer (March 10, 2004) There's a method to controversies—identifiable patterns, behaviors, and tendencies. By William Powers. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
The Search for a Winning Combo
A running mate can help in three ways: geography, demography, and message. by William Schneider .... There are 10 reasons for picking a particular person as your running mate. Reason No. 1: That person will help you win. The other nine reasons don't matter. When you're running for president, nothing matters except winning. Compatibility? Who cares? John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson were not especially compatible. But Johnson was crucial to Kennedy's victory in 1960. That's all that mattered. How can a running mate help a presidential nominee win? Three ways: geography, demography, and message. LBJ added geographical balance to a Democratic ticket headed by a senator from Massachusetts. Without Johnson, Kennedy could never have carried Texas. When Walter Mondale chose Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, he was making a demographic statement: Women had arrived. By naming 41-year-old Dan Quayle as his running mate in 1988, George H.W. Bush was making a demographic statement about youth. By picking Joe Lieberman in 2000, Al Gore was sending a message: "I'm not Bill Clinton. See, I picked Clinton's severest Democratic critic." George W. Bush was also sending a message with his choice of Dick Cheney: "You want experience? We got it." So what are John Kerry's options? Democrats around the country seem to be thrilled at the prospect of a "two Johns" ticket, Kerry and Edwards. A late-February poll by CBS News shows Kerry and Bush running neck and neck. But a Kerry-Edwards ticket runs 8 points ahead of Bush and Cheney. After the February 26 Democratic debate in Los Angeles, a reporter said to Edwards, "You had a vice presidential vibe tonight. Is that something you're considering?" Edwards replied: "No." The reporter persisted, "What about if you're behind in the polls?" Edwards: "No." Then came Super Tuesday. The results forced Edwards to drop out, and he began sounding a lot more vice presidential: "The truth of the matter is that John Kerry has what it takes ... to be president of the United States. And I, for one, intend to do everything in my power to make him the next president." Sure, Edwards, a North Carolinian, adds balance to a ticket headed by a Massachusetts Democrat. But Kerry has said that Democrats are unlikely to be competitive in most of the South. Look what picking Democratic Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas did for Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988: Nothing. What Edwards really would add is message. Shortly after Edwards withdrew, Kerry described his former rival as "a valiant champion of the values for which our party stands." Edwards touts populist economic values, which offer a sharp contrast with the Bush administration. But can a winning ticket include two senators? Sure. It worked in 1960. The most competitive Southern state is Florida, land of the hanging chads. Florida happens to have two Democratic senators available, former astronaut Bill Nelson and former Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob Graham. At a March 3 town hall meeting in Florida, Kerry paid tribute to Graham, who is retiring from the Senate this year, saying, "Bob Graham, obviously beloved, is now wrapping up at least a portion of his career." "A portion of his career"? Now what could Kerry have meant? But the geography Kerry is after may not be in the South. It may be in the Midwest, in the states Democrats hope to take away from Bush—Ohio, Missouri, and West Virginia. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri could help Kerry there. Gephardt has a sharply focused economic message: jobs, jobs, jobs. Sure, Kerry and Gephardt would look like a team of Washington insiders. But this year, voters seem to want candidates with experience. You want demography? Try New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. The first Hispanic on a national ticket might create excitement in the nation's largest ethnic minority. That enthusiasm could pay off in Florida, Arizona, and Colorado, states Bush carried in 2000 with large Hispanic minorities. Richardson, a former ambassador to the United Nations, has foreign-policy credentials. He has negotiated with the North Koreans. He even negotiated with Saddam Hussein in 1995 for the release of two American prisoners. Richardson's tenure as Energy secretary, however, was marred by the mishandling of security at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Any women who might add demographic appeal? There's Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano and Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Both are from states the Democrats would dearly love to capture from Bush. But the woman many Democrats fantasize about is Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. Asked whether she was open to the idea of joining the ticket, she said, "I don't think I would ever be offered. I don't think I would accept." Not exactly a Shermanesque "no." But would putting her on the ticket help Kerry win? And why not go for broke and tap former President Clinton? Constitutional experts say it's possible, because the Constitution says, "No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice," but it says nothing about a two-term president being barred from the vice presidency. A Clinton on the ticket would instantly turn the election into a referendum on the Clintons. Bad idea. The presidential nominee would become a forgotten man. Remember, for Kerry to win, the election has to be a referendum, not on him or his running mate, but on President Bush.
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2004 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. | [an error occurred while processing this directive] | ||
|
Home |
Current Issue |
Back Issues |
Forum |
Site Guide |
Feedback |
Subscribe |
Search
| ||||
