| [an error occurred while processing this directive] |  |  |
 |  | |
| ||
| |||||||
| |||||||
|
| ||||||
| |||||||
| |||||||
 Recent commentary from National Journal: Wealth of Nations: George Bush and the Labor Market: Like Father, Like Son? (March 3, 2004) If the flight of jobs overseas is not the cause of the current labor-market malaise, what is? And at what point will job growth start to match the economy's growth in output? By Clive Crook. Legal Affairs: 'Enemy Combatants': Inching Toward Due Process (March 3, 2004) The Bush administration's handling of alleged "enemy combatants" at Guantanamo Bay shows signs of paying more heed to the rule of law. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Media: Cold Feet (March 3, 2004) We may look back one day and wonder why media coverage of the gay-marriage issue never kicked in to the old, familiar fight-for-justice story line evident in the civil-rights struggles of the 1960s. By William Powers. Social Studies: Israel's Sharon Is Up to Something in Gaza. But What? (February 25, 2004) What's up with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's recent announcement that Israel intends to withdraw from its settlements in Gaza? By Jonathan Rauch. Legal Affairs: John Edwards: The Lawsuit Industry Puts Its Best Face Forward (February 25, 2004) A look at John Edwards's legal career provides a window into the flaws of the legal system that made this mill worker's son a multimillionaire. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Political Pulse: Bush's Vanished Capital (February 25, 2004) John Kerry was on both sides of the issue that split the Vietnam generation. He was a war hero and an anti-war hero. With Kerry as their leading candidate, Democrats have the standing to play the military card. By William Schneider. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
Positively Negative?
John Edwards needs to prove two things to Democrats on Super Tuesday. First, that he is electable. And second, that John Kerry isn't. Otherwise, he faces a long, difficult day. by William Schneider .... The campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination now moves to air wars in 10 "Super Tuesday" states spread across the country. Those states include ones with the nation's most expensive media markets. As of January 31, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina had a little more than $500,000 in the bank and debts of nearly $400,000. He clearly does not have the money to run television ads in the Super Tuesday states. He must rely on free media. To get that coverage, Edwards has to make news. The only sure way for Edwards to do that is to go negative on Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts in an attempt to persuade Democrats to abandon their front-runner. Kerry's standing is based on his image of electability. In state after state, voters looking for a candidate who can beat President Bush have gone overwhelmingly for Kerry. So, Edwards needs to prove two things to Democrats: (1) that he is electable, and (2) that Kerry isn't. The latest Gallup Poll shows Kerry leading Bush by 12 points (55 percent to 43 percent among likely voters), but it also shows Edwards leading Bush by 10 (54 percent to 44 percent). No significant difference there. Kerry and Edwards appear equally electable. Edwards can also claim that he appeals more to crossover voters than Kerry does. Wisconsin had an open primary, and the votes of independents made Edwards competitive. In the networks' exit poll, Democrats went for Kerry over Edwards by 15 points, but independents went for Edwards over Kerry by 14 points. That gave Edwards his new message: "The fact that independents are flocking to me is powerful evidence that I would be the strongest candidate against George Bush." Seven Super Tuesday states (California, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont) will allow independents to vote in their March 2 contests. If you exclude Vermont, where Edwards is not on the ballot, those states have a total of 782 delegates. Three Super Tuesday states with a total of 354 delegates allow only registered Democrats to vote (Connecticut, Maryland, and New York). If independents continue to support him as they did in Wisconsin, the edge that open states will have is good news for Edwards. Edwards is running as an economic populist. "There are really two different Americas," he says—"one for families who get whatever they want whenever they need it, and then one for everybody else." Wisconsin has suffered severe job losses. Fifty-six percent more people are unemployed there now than were in 2000. Wisconsin primary voters concerned about the economy and jobs went for Edwards over Kerry (46 percent to 35 percent). Six Super Tuesday states have seen jobless numbers rise by at least 50 percent since 2000. Good news for Edwards? As it happens, four of those states are in Kerry's own New England. But Minnesota and Ohio may be open to Edwards's populist message, too. On the other hand, Maryland, New York, and Ohio are strong union states and may see a big turnout by organized labor. Despite Edwards's anti-trade message, Wisconsin's union vote tilted to Kerry (41 percent to 34 percent). And now that the AFL-CIO has endorsed Kerry, the union tilt might be more pronounced. Edwards has strong issue appeal to Democrats, but the party base has held fast for Kerry because of his presumed electability. Edwards can't win unless he figures out a way to demolish that argument. For instance, are voters aware that Kerry opposes the death penalty except for terrorists, much like the man under whom he once served as lieutenant governor? Gov. Michael Dukakis's 1988 campaign arguably ended when he was asked how he would respond if someone raped and murdered his wife. "I've opposed the death penalty during all of my life," Dukakis said dispassionately. "I don't see any evidence that it's a deterrent." When Edwards ran for the Senate in North Carolina in 1998, he advertised his support for the death penalty after his Republican opponent called him a liberal. "You've heard Lauch Faircloth's lies about John Edwards," the ad said. "Now here's the truth: John Edwards supports the death penalty." Edwards can also draw a distinction between himself, the economic populist born to modest circumstances, and Kerry, who had a more privileged upbringing. Edwards says that laid-off workers "deserve a president of the United States who understands what their lives are like, who understands what it means when they lose their jobs." So what if the AFL-CIO endorsed Kerry? That just makes him an insider. Edwards knows how to run as an outsider. He did it in 1998. "I'll be a new kind of senator," an Edwards ad said. "I won't take a dime from PACs or Washington lobbyists." Edwards has taken pride in running a positive presidential campaign. How could he go negative on Kerry? Maybe the same way he went negative in 1998. He claimed to be defending himself in this campaign ad: "Lauch Faircloth is not telling the truth. If he was, don't you think he'd be willing to say it to my face?" Meanwhile, Republicans are spoiling for a fight—between Edwards and Kerry. Maybe that's why the Wisconsin exit poll showed that Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary went strongly for Edwards over Kerry, 44 percent to 18 percent. Were they voting for Edwards to bloody up Kerry?
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2003 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. | [an error occurred while processing this directive] | ||
|
Home |
Current Issue |
Back Issues |
Forum |
Site Guide |
Feedback |
Subscribe |
Search
| ||||
