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 Recent commentary from National Journal: Social Studies: The War in Iraq Was the Right Mistake to Make (February 11, 2004) The war in Iraq was premised on a mistake. Does that mean the war itself was a mistake? Yes. But it was a special kind of mistake: a justified mistake. By Jonathan Rauch. Legal Affairs: Did Bush, Cheney, and Powell Deliberately Mislead Us? (February 11, 2004) The administration's selective disclosures about Iraq denied Americans the opportunity to reach fully informed judgments about a matter of incalculably grave consequence. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Media: Gut Check (February 11, 2004) The problem with campaign journalism is that it is at once seriously old-fashioned and wildly postmodern. By William Powers. Legal Affairs: Ted Kennedy's Excellent Idea: Disclosing Admissions Preferences (February 4, 2004) Ted Kennedy has the right idea in wanting universities to disclose information on alumni relatives that they admit. But why stop there? By Stuart Taylor Jr. Political Pulse: Desperate to Win (February 4, 2004) The man who had the most influence in New Hampshire wasn't on the ballot. His name is George W. Bush. By William Schneider. Media: It's Raining Words (February 4, 2004) Sometimes phrases just catch on. Consider "wintry mix," an inexact phrase used to describe inexact weather. By William Powers. Wealth of Nations: How Tony Blair Survived His Scariest Week (February 4, 2004) Tony Blair has just endured the scariest few days of his political life. One of his problems also plagues George Bush: Iraq's missing WMD. By Clive Crook. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
Trouble, Trouble, Trouble
George W. Bush's approval rating has dropped below 50 percent for the first time in his presidency. by William Schneider .... When a president's job rating dips below 50 percent, he's got trouble. President Bush's job approval, as reported by the Gallup Poll taken from January 30 to February 1, has taken a tumble over the past month, from 60 percent in early January to 49 percent now. The latest Newsweek poll reports the same 49 percent approval. This is the first time that Bush's job rating as president has dipped below 50 percent. In other words, trouble. The president's biggest problem: Iraq. According to Gallup, the public's approval of the way Bush is handling Iraq has dropped from 61 percent last month to 46 percent now. The continuing loss of U.S. lives— more than 500 Americans have now been killed in Iraq—has taken a toll on Bush's standing. And so has this revelation by former chief weapons inspector David Kay: "The intelligence service believed there were [weapons of mass destruction]. It turns out we were almost all wrong." The percentage of Americans who think that it was worth going to war in Iraq has fallen off sharply since the capture of Saddam Hussein in December. In the euphoria of that moment, nearly two-thirds of Americans felt the war was worthwhile. Now, for the first time, fewer than half feel that way. That may be why Bush felt compelled to offer a concession to his critics: "I am putting together an independent, bipartisan commission to analyze where we stand, what we can do better, as we fight this war against terror." Bush's problems are bigger than Iraq, however. His rating on handling the nation's economy has dropped 11 points over the past month. That's the toll of the Democratic primary campaign, with nine candidates at one time or another taking aim at the president's economic policies. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts repeats his winning mantra in state after state: "I am running for president to create jobs in America and to keep jobs in America." Jobs are the issue on which Kerry enjoys his biggest advantage over Bush in the Gallup Poll. Asked which candidate they would have more confidence in to "make sure good jobs are available to all Americans," voters chose Kerry over Bush by 20 points. Democrats are rallying to Kerry. Even before the February 3 primaries, Kerry had become the top choice of nearly a majority of Democrats for their party's nomination—49 percent, up from just 9 percent a month ago. Kerry now has more than three times as much support as his closest competitors, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (14 percent) and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina (13 percent). Kerry's perceived electability is at the heart of his support. By 57 percent to 39 percent, Democrats say they prefer a nominee who has the best chance of beating Bush over a candidate they agree with on the issues. It's rare to find that kind of fixation on electability, but Democrats are experiencing a rare bout of powerlessness. They are out of power in the White House and in both houses of Congress. The Supreme Court awarded Bush the presidency. Most governors and state legislators are Republicans. And Democrats resent being bullied by the growing conservative influence in the news media. Dean was the candidate who promised to empower Democrats. He told them in a debate last month, "You have the power to take back our country, so the flag of the United States is no longer the sole property of John Ashcroft and Rush Limbaugh and Jerry Falwell." But the message was undercut by the messenger. Dean's unappealing qualities as a candidate neutralized the appeal of his message. In the latest Gallup Poll, 61 percent of Americans expressed a favorable opinion of Kerry. The only other Democratic contender most Americans liked was Edwards (54 percent favorable). And Bush? Just 52 percent favorable, down from 65 percent a month ago. Bush has taken a hammering from Democrats, and it shows. What about the Democrats' former front-runner, Dean? Only 42 percent of the public had a positive opinion of him. Kerry claims he's the most electable Democrat. In a head-to-head matchup with Bush, Kerry leads by 7 points (53 percent to 46 percent). Dean claims he's more electable than Kerry. "I do not think you can run a campaign for president against the special interests and be the senator who's taken the most special-interest money in the last 15 years," Dean said of Kerry, adding, "Therefore, I think I'm the most electable of all the Democrats." Yet the polls now show Dean losing to Bush by 7 points (52 percent to 45 percent), the mirror image of Kerry's winning margin. Republicans hope to expose Kerry as another Massachusetts liberal whose values are outside the mainstream. But voters don't see Kerry that way. By 50 percent to 41 percent, they say Kerry—not Bush—is the candidate who shares their values. Thirty-nine percent of voters describe Bush's political views as "too conservative." By comparison, 29 percent describe Kerry's as "too liberal." So who's out of touch here? The Democratic rally isn't limited to Kerry. The Gallup Poll shows that positive opinion of the Democratic Party has surged over the past month to 59 percent. Positive opinion of the GOP has sagged to 48 percent. The heated race for the Democratic nomination has definitely taken a toll, but not on the Democrats.
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2003 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. |
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