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 Recent commentary from National Journal: Media: Imperial Iowa (January 21, 2004) Do you care about Iowa? You better. The media demand nothing less than total engagement. By William Powers. Legal Affairs: Bush's Immigration Plan: A Step In the Right Direction (January 21, 2004) President Bush's immigration plan is a step in the right direction; it's more generous to illegals than the status quo, but unlikely to touch off a massive new influx. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Wealth of Nations: Why the New Protectionism Is Both Wrongheaded And Dangerous (January 21, 2004) The case for free trade is as strong as ever. Worries about the "flight" of service-sector jobs out of the United States are largely overblown. By Clive Crook. Media: Good Rover! (January 14, 2004) The Mars story had all the goods to dispel the jitters and gloom of recent months. By William Powers. Social Studies: To Fight AIDS, Lift the Ban on Immigrants With HIV (January 14, 2004) It's time for the federal government to rescind the ban on HIV-positive foreigners from entering or staying in the United States. By Jonathan Rauch. Legal Affairs: The Supreme Court Needs to Rule on 'Enemy Combatants' (January 14, 2004) The Bush administration's handling of "enemy-combatant" cases has been so lawless as to smack of tyranny. The Supreme Court needs to step in. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Political Pulse: The Surging Front-Runner (January 14, 2004) The more the establishment turns on Howard Dean, the more his supporters are energized. By William Schneider. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
Expectations Great and Small
Winning isn't enough in the presidential nominating system. You have to do better than "expected." by William Schneider .... There's a new candidate in the Democratic race. The candidate's name: "expected." Winning isn't enough. You have to do better than "expected." "Expected" often plays an important role. Take the case of the 1992 New Hampshire primary. After the Gennifer Flowers and draft record controversies, Bill Clinton was in grave danger in the Granite State. He ended up finishing second to Paul Tsongas. But that placement was better than "expected." So he was able to proclaim himself "the Comeback Kid." Polls help set expectations, even though they're not particularly good at predicting the results of primaries and caucuses—multicandidate races where turnout is volatile. Right now, polls tell us to expect a close race between Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean in the January 19 Iowa caucuses. If either wins big, he will have done better than expected. Dean appeared to be losing some momentum in Iowa last week, as news got out that he had once criticized the Iowa caucuses as being "dominated by special interests." Then on January 9, Dean won the endorsement of Iowa's most popular Democrat, Sen. Tom Harkin. The former Vermont governor was expected to regain momentum, at least in Iowa. Iowa is critical for Gephardt. He comes from neighboring Missouri and won the Iowa caucuses in 1988. If Gephardt doesn't win Iowa this time, he's expected to have trouble staying in the race. With Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman opting out of the Iowa contest, a tight race is shaping up for third place between John Kerry and John Edwards. A second-place finish by either of them would be an unexpectedly strong showing. Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, polls are setting high expectations for Dean's performance in that state's January 27 primary. If Dean doesn't win New Hampshire by a big margin, he'll do worse than expected. At one time, Kerry, who is from neighboring Massachusetts, was expected to win New Hampshire handily. But Kerry has sunk so low in the polls that if he comes anywhere close to Dean, he'll have done better than expected. Meanwhile, Clark, Lieberman, and Edwards are all hoping to do unexpectedly well in New Hampshire, and maybe even come in second to Dean. If Clark finishes ahead of Kerry, Kerry's campaign could be finished. After New Hampshire, the real contest begins: the one between Dean and "Stop Dean." The "Stop Dean" title could be conferred on February 3. Of the five primaries and two caucuses to be held then, several are in conservative states (South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arizona), where Dean is expected to be weaker. The biggest prize on February 3 is South Carolina, whose Democratic primary is the first with a significant black vote. So Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun are expected to do well there, but so is Edwards, who is originally from South Carolina and represents North Carolina in the Senate. Lieberman, a relatively conservative Democrat, is also expected to be competitive there, and so is Clark, a Southerner and a retired general. And if Gephardt survives Iowa, his criticism of free trade might resonate in South Carolina because of its battered textile industry. Gephardt also has the support of Rep. James Clyburn, the state's only black member of Congress. In other words, anything could happen in South Carolina. Gephardt, Sharpton, Braun, Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman could split most of the South Carolina vote, in which case Dean might come in first. Such a situation would be so unexpected, it could effectively end the contest for the nomination by showing that front-runner Dean does well even in the South. If someone other than Dean wins South Carolina—or Arizona or Oklahoma—on February 3, that candidate might clinch the "Stop Dean" title. And the stage would be set for a brutal monthlong slugfest between Dean and Stop Dean. Other candidates would be expected to drop out, and in each case, the question would be: Does he or she endorse Dean, try to stop Dean, or stay neutral? For the rest of February, the battle will rage across seven statewide caucuses and four primaries. First up are the Michigan caucuses, on February 7. Will a major Midwestern battleground state go for Dean? His chances may be good, thanks to Michigan rules that allow Internet voting. Dean's supporters are well wired. Then come the Virginia and Tennessee primaries, on February 10. Will Al Gore deliver his home state of Tennessee for Dean? Or will Democrats in those two Southern states bolster the Stop Dean cause? If Clark wins South Carolina, then Virginia and Tennessee could generate real momentum for him. The Democratic race comes to a head on Super Tuesday, March 2, when nine primaries take place, including in California, New York, Ohio, and Georgia. That day is likely to be the final showdown between Dean and Stop Dean. On March 2, only one of their campaigns is expected to come out alive. Of course, candidates and their spin doctors are always trying to lower expectations so they can boast that they've done better than "expected." And new polls keep coming out, so expectations can change in a flash. That's the problem with running against "expected." He's a candidate whose positions keep changing.
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2003 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. |
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