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 Recent commentary from National Journal: Media: Dull Machines (November 4, 2003) For all the good work done in technology coverage, it's too bad it doesn't engage us more consistently. By William Powers. Social Studies: Bush Is No Cowboy. But If He Were, It Wouldn't Matter. (November 4, 2003) To speak of America as isolated or Bush as unilateralist seems an exaggeration, to be charitable. By Jonathan Rauch. Legal Affairs: Educating Black Children: Why Culture Matters (November 4, 2003) Blacks and Hispanics got in trouble at home when their grades fell below C-minus, compared with A-minus for Asians. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Legal Affairs: Closing the Racial Gap In Learning: What Does Not Work (October 28, 2003) More integration, more money, smaller class sizes, different teacher—none of these holds much promise. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Media: Who Sells Darkness? (October 28, 2003) The media hasn't filtered out what good news there is in Iraq. By William Powers. Political Pulse: The Internet as ATM (October 28, 2003) Dean's campaign hopes to find 2 million foes of Bush willing to give $100 each. By William Schneider. Wealth of Nations: The WTO's Getting a Bum Rap. It's Not Usurping Power. (October 28, 2003) Critics talk as though this modestly endowed body were some rich and mighty force in its own right. By Clive Crook. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
Putin's Arresting Move
Jailing Russia's richest oilman makes him a more dangerous rival by William Schneider .... MOSCOW—A scandal of Watergate proportions is rocking Moscow. It threatens Russia's economic revival and endangers President Vladimir Putin's long-term political survival. Russians are calling it a signal event in their country's history, comparable to Stalin's purges of the 1930s or the Soviet invasion of Prague in 1968. The cause of the controversy is the headline-grabbing arrest last weekend of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a leading oil tycoon and, according to Forbes, the richest person in Russia. The state prosecutor's office has charged him with tax evasion, fraud, and theft. Khodorkovsky's arrest could hardly have been more dramatic. When his plane touched down for refueling in Siberia at 5 a.m. last Saturday, federal agents wearing camouflage uniforms and black masks stormed aboard. According to witnesses, the agents kicked down doors, ordered passengers to the floor, and shouted, "Don't try to defend yourselves, or we'll shoot." Khodorkovsky did not seem surprised by his arrest. The offices of his oil company, Yukos, had already been raided. Three of his business associates had been arrested. "OK, let's go," Khodorkovsky is reported to have told his captors. He was immediately flown to Moscow, arraigned, and thrown in jail. The arrest is widely seen as a shrewd political move by Putin. Khodorkovsky is one of Russia's "oligarchs," a group of 17 billionaires who acquired sudden wealth in the 1990s after the Soviet Union collapsed and they bought government properties at fire-sale prices. Polls show that most Russians deeply resent the oligarchs. Most of them are young; Khodorkovsky is 40. And many of them, including Khodorkovsky, are Jewish. When Putin came to power in 2000, he promised not to challenge the oligarchs' business practices as long as they stayed out of politics. When two oligarchs tangled with Putin last year, the Kremlin threatened them with arrest. They chose exile. Khodorkovsky was different—brash, provocative, and openly defiant. He became an economic reform leader, squeezing corrupt managers out of his company and sponsoring a program of corporate philanthropy aimed at exposing what he called "the failure of the state." Khodorkovsky confronted Putin in public forums, demanding an end to oppressive state controls over business activity. He also funded political opposition movements and expressed political ambitions of his own. "I want to end my business career at 45 and then be involved in one form or another in public affairs," he told The New York Times last month. He turns 45 in 2008, when Russians will elect Putin's successor. Khodorkovsky's arrest may be a popular move for Putin in the short run: He wants to use the parliamentary elections on December 7 to consolidate his support, and he is expected to easily win re-election as president in March. But Putin's strategy entails risks. It threatens Russia's economic boom, which is fueled by high oil prices and foreign investment. After Khodorkovsky's arrest, the Russian stock market took a hit, and foreign investors warned of a negative investment climate, even for Russians. "Two words," a Moscow-based investment banker predicted: "capital flight." When leaders of the Russian business community met in Moscow last week, they spoke ominously of a "climate of fear" among their colleagues. "I am ashamed of my country," one said. "In Russia," another remarked bitterly, "business is considered a criminal offense." Still another recalled President Reagan's denunciation of the Soviet Union as an "evil empire." The Khodorkovsky affair has united and politicized the Russian business community. The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs issued a statement on the day of the arrest, saying, "The business community's trust in the authorities is ruined." But if the business sector is so widely despised, doesn't that give Putin the upper hand politically? Not necessarily. This is not so much a showdown between the people and the oligarchs as between two elites—business and bureaucracy. "This is not a war to take away wealth from the super-rich and pass it over to the poor," independent political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky told The Moscow Times. "This is a struggle of millionaires trying to take away wealth from billionaires." Andrei Ryabov of the Carnegie Moscow Center told The Washington Post, "At first, it was perceived as fighting for social justice by taking on the oligarchs. But now, people begin to perceive the conflict as a fight between two groups for power." Putin, who comes out of the bureaucracy, has sided decisively with the bureaucrats. But in a showdown between greedy businessmen and corrupt bureaucrats, public opinion may not be so one-sided. And keep in mind that Khodorkovsky made a deliberate decision to call the Kremlin's bluff. He virtually invited his own arrest. A Yukos spokesman said, "He saw this coming. He was not fazed by it, and there was no question of him standing down." Shortly after his arrest, Khodorkovsky issued a statement, declaring, "I don't regret anything I have done, nor do I regret what has happened today." Khodorkovsky told The New York Times last month, "If I am arrested, it will be unpleasant, but not fatal." He may be in jail, but he has attained the standing he has long sought—that of Vladimir Putin's most dangerous political opponent.
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2003 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. |
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