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 Recent commentary from National Journal: Media: We Pledge Allegiance (June 3, 2002) A new exhibit at the Smithsonian that displays scores of flag-waving magazine covers from 1942 is a reminder of how expressions of patriotism by the media have changed over the years. By William Powers Social Studies: Does Al Qaeda Have Anthrax? Better Assume So (June 3, 2002) If anything, hints that the anthrax attacks and Al Qaeda may be linked have grown harder to dismiss. By Jonathan Rauch On Books: The Counterintelligence Dilemma (June 3, 2002) Reviews of A Convenient Spy by Dan Stober and Ian Hoffman, about the Wen Ho Lee case, and Chasing Spies by Athan Theoharis, about the FBI's failings in counterintelligence during the early years of the Cold War. By Dick Kirschten Media: Some Like It Hot (May 28, 2002) The media's real bias—in favor of scandal—has been on vivid display in recent days. By William Powers Legal Affairs: Congress Should Investigate Ashcroft's Detentions (May 28, 2002) Ashcroft has used at least four different rationales—all of questionable legality—for locking up Muslims. By Stuart Taylor Jr. On Books: Lessons From Madness (May 28, 2002) Reviews of two books about mental illness: Mad in America by Robert Whitaker and Madness by Roy Porter. By Mary Hager Political Pulse: Return of the Scandal Script (May 28, 2002) Revelations about Bush's CIA briefing are likely to make the war on terror more partisan. By William Schneider. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
White House Warnings Aid GOPRepublicans' prospects in House elections rise as public focuses more on national security by William Schneider .... The controversy over the Bush administration's handling of the pre-9/11 terrorism warnings has had no impact on President Bush's standing with the American public. In the April Gallup Poll, Bush's job-approval rating was 76 percent—just as it is now. The president's rating for handling world affairs has likewise held steady—at 70 percent. So, what has happened to the president's rating on terrorism? Nothing. Americans' approval of Bush's handling of terrorism was 83 percent in April and 83 percent in May. A majority of Americans think that the White House did the best it could with the information available. Among people who say that the White House could have done a better job, almost half call the shortcomings understandable. Only a quarter of Americans say they think there was enough information to have prevented the September 11 attacks. And polling suggests that those people were already hostile to Bush. Are Americans taking the Bush administration's warnings about new terrorist attacks seriously? Apparently, they are. The proportion of Americans who say that a terrorist attack is likely in the next few weeks has gone up—from just over half in March to nearly two-thirds now. Conservatives are much more likely than liberals to be worried about new attacks, possibly because the White House has more credibility among conservatives. Moreover, some liberals may think that the White House warnings are politically motivated. A less-cynical interpretation of the split between conservatives and liberals is that the two sorts of people have different agendas. Conservatives give top priority to the war on terrorism, while liberals are more concerned with domestic problems. Whatever the reason, the fact is that how seriously you take the terrorist threat depends on your politics. There is no question about what kind of terrorist threat worries Americans most: suicide bombings in crowded areas, such as restaurants and shopping malls. In the May Time magazine poll, nearly 60 percent of Americans say they think that suicide bombings in the United States are very likely within the next year-far more likely than other kinds of terrorist attacks, including some threats that the government has been warning about. Forty-two percent say they think that attacks on national landmarks, such as the Statue of Liberty and the Brooklyn Bridge, are very likely. Thirty-one percent think it's very likely we'll see apartment bombings. Only 27 percent think it's very likely there will be another 9/11-style attack in which hijacked airliners are crashed into large buildings. Suicide bombings are perceived as the biggest threat because they're the most difficult to prevent and because they are happening in Israel. If Israel, with its elaborate security precautions, can't prevent suicide bombings, what can the United States do? Most Americans continue to have at least some confidence that the U.S. government can protect its citizens from future attacks. But that confidence has slipped a little. In the March Gallup Poll, 82 percent expressed confidence that the government could protect Americans. Now 76 percent are confident. Confidence has gone up among men and down among women. That change appears to be more psychological than political: Men have more confidence in the military than women do. Recent polls reveal another change. Today, only 7 percent of Americans consider Russia a very serious threat, down from 19 percent two years ago and from 65 percent 19 years ago. September 11 pulled the United States and Russia closer together. The old Cold War adversaries find themselves on the same side in the war against terrorism. "This treaty will liquidate the legacy of the Cold War," Bush said on May 13, when he announced his intention to sign a new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia. The principal perceived threats today are Iraq (59 percent of Americans) and Iran (50 percent). North Korea, the third country in Bush's "axis of evil," is viewed as a serious threat by only 19 percent. Americans no longer feel particularly threatened by communism: Just 19 percent see China as a serious threat; 13 percent see Cuba as one. But Americans do feel threatened by Islamic terrorism. The public firmly rejects the idea that politics is behind the Bush administration's new terrorism warnings. By more than 2-to-1 in the Time poll, respondents think that the government's recent warnings were based on intelligence reports and were not issued to divert attention from the government's handling of pre-9/11 warnings. Nevertheless, the new warnings do have a political impact. In the January Time poll, twice as many people said such domestic issues as the economy and Social Security would determine their vote for the House of Representatives this year. Now domestic issues and foreign policy are virtually tied in importance in voters' minds. The White House warnings have ratcheted up the political salience of national security—to the Republicans' advantage. People who say their vote will depend on domestic issues plan to vote Democratic in the House contests. People who say national security is more important give Republicans the edge.
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2001 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. |
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