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 Recent commentary from National Journal: Media: The Death of Greatness (January 8, 2002) The New York Times' "Portraits of Grief" show a sudden appreciation for ordinary people. By William Powers. Legal Affairs: How 9/11 Shines a Spotlight on Litigation Lottery (January 8, 2002) The impulse to avoid litigation over September 11 should spur deeper thought about our legal system. By Stuart Taylor Jr. On Books: Villains Galore, Some of Them American (January 8, 2002) A review of Bill Berkeley's The Graves Are Not Yet Full. By Angela Stephens. Social Studies: Therapeutic Cloning: Why Congress Should Butt Out (December 18, 2001) Forget about a national law. Let states go their separate ways, as they are doing already. By Jonathan Rauch. Legal Affairs: Politically Correct Idealogues, Still Stuck In Their Ruts (December 18, 2001) A bah-humbug for Norman Mineta, John Ashcroft, leftist professors, Republican tax-cutters, and Jerry Falwell. By Stuart Taylor Jr. Political Pulse: Domestic Issues Making a Comeback (December 18, 2001) The surprising thing about the trade vote was how hard Bush had to work to win. By William Schneider. Media: The Phony War (December 18, 2001) The woods are full of pressies eager to return to toxic, '90s-style ideological battles. By William Powers. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
And, They're Off!With the primary just two months away, the California governor's race is already personal, nasty by William Schneider .... SAN FRANCISCO—It may be just past New Year's Day, but the 2002 campaign has been under way for some time here. Voters may be surprised to discover that the California primary is just two months away. In 2000, it was moved up three months to increase the state's clout in the presidential nominating process. Three Republicans are competing for the chance to challenge Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in November: Secretary of State Bill Jones, businessman William Simon, and former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. Encouraged to run by the Bush White House, Riordan is leading in the primary polls and is favored to win the nomination. Why does the White House want Riordan in the race? The California GOP is flat on its back. And the White House wants to eliminate Davis as a 2004 threat. If one wanted to design a winning Republican candidate in California, the contender would be a wealthy moderate who supports abortion rights and is popular in the Los Angeles area. Bingo: Dick Riordan! Riordan is not a favorite of conservatives, but after big Democratic sweeps in 1996, 1998, and 2000, they seem ready to go with a winner. A winner? Wait a minute. No governor of California has been denied a second term since 1942. And California has been trending more and more Democratic. That's why politicos were shocked last fall when three polls came out showing Riordan ahead of Davis. In the latest statewide Field Poll, Davis is the only politician whose approval rating did not rise after September 11. As one political player remarked, "Gray Davis has no personal relationship with the voters." That matters a lot in a media-saturated state, particularly for a governor trying to get re-elected in tough times. Davis's weak leadership in California's electricity crisis seems to have cost him dearly. He's also been hurt by his warning last fall that terrorists were threatening to attack major California bridges. Federal authorities played down the credibility of the threats, and Davis's warning caused serious economic damage here in the Bay Area. Worst of all, the governor announced no contingency plan. "The first question people asked was, 'What are we supposed to do?' " columnist Phil Matier recalled. "Davis had no answer." California is famous for its right-wing Republicans (think former Gov. Ronald Reagan) and left-wing Democrats (think former Gov. Jerry Brown). Suppose Riordan wins the March 5 primary. He's a moderate Republican; Davis is a centrist Democrat. There are not many big differences between them. Democrats who are dissatisfied with Davis—and there are many of them here in the overwhelmingly Democratic San Francisco Bay area—would have little trouble switching to Riordan. That's why the race for governor is likely to get personal and nasty. In fact, it already has. The San Francisco Chronicle recently revealed that when Riordan was mayor, he threatened to cut off surplus power to the rest of the state unless L.A. got paid up front. Now where could that information have come from? Embattled Democratic Congressman Gary Condit, questioned by police after the disappearance of intern Chandra Levy, is also on the primary ballot. He faces a tough challenge from state Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza, who once worked for him. House Democratic leaders in Washington are remaining neutral in the contest. Last month, California Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the newly elected House Democratic whip, created a stir when she released a statement saying, "I endorsed Gary for re-election a long time ago." This from a staunch supporter of women's rights? Indeed, Pelosi had endorsed Condit last spring, along with a dozen of his conservative colleagues in the "Blue Dog" Democratic caucus. In return, the Blue Dogs supported Pelosi for whip. Her statement went on to say: "I have not spoken to any member encouraging them to support Gary.... Condit's re-election is a matter between him and his constituents." Nevertheless, Pelosi got so much flak for her endorsement that she ended up withdrawing it after Condit issued a statement asking his fellow Democrats to "take no role in his campaign." No one in California thinks Condit will win the primary. And some observers expect him to drop out. That may be why his opponent has neither raised nor spent much money. The California primary ballot also includes Proposition 45, which would allow state legislators facing term limits to serve for an additional four years if 20 percent of their constituents sign a petition and if they win re-election. Proposition 45 would be a major reversal for the term-limits movement that was so hot 10 years ago. The latest Field Poll shows that California voters support Prop 45 by 50 percent to 37 percent. But all three GOP primary candidates for governor oppose it. And there's no race likely to draw a heavy Democratic turnout on March 5. If, as expected, the measure fails, look for John Burton, the term-limited state Senate president, and Willie Brown, the term-limited mayor of San Francisco, to try to switch jobs with each other. That possibility is ironic because one of the main reasons the term-limits movement got started here in California in 1990 was that it looked as if it was the only way to end then-Assembly Speaker Willie Brown's career.
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2001 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. | [an error occurred while processing this directive] | ||
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