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 Recent commentary from National Journal: Media: Tone Makes a Comeback (October 23, 2001) In the news trade, there are times when substance isn't everthing. We're in one of those times; it's only a slight exaggeration to say tone is what matters these days. By William Powers. Legal Affairs: The Media, The Military, and Striking the Right Balance (October 23, 2001) The military and the Administration have ample reason to distrust some reporters and editors. By Stuart Taylor Jr. On Books: Still, It's Home (October 23, 2001) A reviews of Curtis Wilkie's Dixie, a South-toward-home memoir. By Jim Wooten Media: Terror and the Tabs (October 16, 2001) Forget the Elvis sightings: The supermarket tabloids, superpatriotic even in calmer times, have shifted into red-white-and-blue gear since the attacks on New York City and Washington. By William Powers. Social Studies: Islam Has Been Hijacked, and Only Muslims Can Save It (October 16, 2001) Only Muslim leaders can discredit the cult of death. But their message has been mixed, muddled, and muttered. By Jonathan Rauch. Political Pulse: A Big-Government Bidding War (October 16, 2001) Democrats up the ante with new spending; Bush calls their bid with new tax cuts. By William Schneider. Legal Affairs: The Rage of Genocidal Masses Must Not Restrain Us (October 16, 2001) If our war aims aren't bold, America is likely to be targeted for yet more attacks. By Stuart Taylor Jr. More from National Journal. |
Political Pulse 
Nation's New Attitudes Boost GOPBefore attacks, it was the Bush economy. Now it's the Osama Bin Laden economy. by William Schneider .... Before September 11, the Democrats had President Bush cornered. They were going to make him break his promise not to touch the Social Security lockbox. Then they were going to force him to back down on prescription drug coverage and a patients' bill of rights and maybe even on his vow not to modify his tax cut. That was then; this is now. Politics has acquired a new gravity. It's about life and death. Politicians, such as Sen. Fred D. Thompson, R-Tenn., who were tiring of the game see an opportunity to make a difference. "Now is clearly not the time to leave," Thompson said in announcing his decision to seek re-election. Politics has gone underground. Petty bickering and ideological posturing are bad form. What's good form? Bipartisanship and a more activist government—but focused on a limited agenda. Last week's Gallup Poll asked the public to rate the nation's highest-priority issues. Terrorism was at the top, along with national defense, foreign affairs, and the economy. A majority of those polled rated each of those issues "extremely important," numbers that were as much as 35 points higher than when George W. Bush took office in January. Just 17 percent of Americans considered foreign affairs extremely important in January. Now 52 percent do. Terrorism is No. 1 on the nation's agenda. The economy is No. 2. Most Americans no longer rank education, Social Security and Medicare, prescription drugs for seniors, or a patients' bill of rights as "extremely important." Each has dropped 10 to 15 points since June, even though the recent poll did not ask people to choose one issue over another. Those traditional domestic issues are just not high priorities right now. The agenda has shifted to physical and economic security, where the President has the upper hand. As a result, the political playing field has tilted back toward the Republicans. Over the summer, Democrats were building up a big lead when voters were asked which party they wanted to control Congress.(Democrats led 43 percent to 34 percent in the August Gallup Poll.) Now it's a statistical tie. Republicans lead by 1 point in the Gallup and Time polls taken this month. The shift to a new agenda has gotten Republicans off the hook, for the time being, and sidelined the bandwagon that Democrats were hoping to ride to victory in next year's congressional elections. The political playing field has also shifted in favor of incumbents. In a crisis, voters want stability, not change. You can see it in the new campaign ads being run in this year's state and local races. In Virginia, for instance, Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Earley is running as the virtual incumbent: "As attorney general, Mark Earley made the safety and security of our families and our schools his top priority.... Mark Earley—experienced leadership we know and trust." Experience was a major advantage for Mark Green last week in his victory in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary. Two-thirds of the Democrats who voted in the primary said they approve of the job Republican Rudy Giuliani is doing as mayor. And pro-Giuliani Democrats voted heavily for Green. For eight months, President Bush was dogged by questions about his legitimacy and competence. Those questions have been laid to rest. His rating as a leader who "inspires confidence" has jumped 20 points in the Gallup Poll while his rating as someone who "understands complex issues" is up 13 points. Moreover, the President's approval rating among Democrats has continued to climb, from 65 percent just after September 11, to 83 percent last week. War is above politics. And war Presidents often seem to be above politics. But underneath it all, there is still politics. House Republicans figured that out last week when they rammed a $100 billion tax-cut package through the House Ways and Means Committee on a party-line vote. It's an economic stimulus proposal that rides on Bush's popularity, even though it goes considerably beyond what the President requested. The new agenda does hold some danger for Bush, the same danger his father faced after the Persian Gulf War. Polls show that Republicans have a strong advantage over Democrats on combating terrorism. But on managing the economy, the two parties are rated about equal. It's hard to say which issue is going to be more salient to voters a year from now. If it's the war on terrorism, the GOP is likely to be in a strong position. If it's the economy, Republicans could have problems. The record shows that even popular Presidents fighting popular wars face problems at the polls. Abraham Lincoln's grand new Republican Party lost ground during the Civil War. Less than a year after Pearl Harbor, voters handed Franklin D. Roosevelt's Democrats a big setback at the polls. And how did a grateful nation show its thanks to President George H.W. Bush a year after the Persian Gulf War? It fired him. This President Bush may have more leeway on the economy than his father did. Before September 11, it was the Bush economy. Now it's the Osama bin Laden economy. Moreover, the victory over Iraq 10 years ago was swift and decisive. The first President Bush had to deal with a bad economy after the Gulf War ended, whereas the current war on terrorism threatens to stretch on for months or even years. A bad peace economy is a much bigger problem, politically, than a bad war economy.
What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. Copyright © 2001 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. |
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