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Recent commentary from National Journal:

Legal Affairs: Tobacco Lawsuits -- Taxing the Victims To Enrich Their Lawyers, by Stuart Taylor Jr. (August 1, 2000)
We cannot punish a tobacco company any more than we can punish a ham sandwich. It is idiotic to pretend that we can.

Social Studies: Al Gore -- Fighting For Reform Without Change, by Jonathan Rauch (July 25, 2000)
Think of Al Gore as the safe candidate. FDA-approved. USDA-inspected. Childproof and flame-retardant.

Legal Affairs: Does the Country Need Legislators Who Wear Black Robes?, by Stuart Taylor Jr. (July 25, 2000)
Were I a lawgiver, I might issue decrees similar to the court's. The question is why the court feels a need to legislate.

Political Pulse: About the Third (and Fourth) Parties, by William Schneider (July 25, 2000)
Nader's threat to Gore is looking much more serious than Buchanan's threat to Bush.

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from National JournalPolitical Pulse:
Following Another Bush's Script


Gore went to Texas to drill for issues. He may have hit a gusher

by William Schneider


August 1, 2000

"I think that this week will be looked back upon as a turning point," Al Gore told labor leaders in Washington last week. It was the week Gore went to Texas and started following a familiar political script. It's the one called "get the governor." Where did Gore get that script? Most likely from Gov. George W. Bush's father, who followed the script twice. It was a big hit the first time. The second time, it flopped.

The first time was in 1988, when Democrat Michael Dukakis ran on his record as governor of Massachusetts. Remember "the Massachusetts miracle"? Then-Vice President George Bush made short work of that. He went to Massachusetts and announced, "If taxes were an Olympic event, Governor Dukakis would get a gold medal.... The Massachusetts miracle is a mirage."

Vice President Bush went after Dukakis on the issues of criminal furloughs ("Under the Dukakis furlough program, Willie Horton was free to murder again") and pollution ("Boston Harbor, the dirtiest harbor in America, will cost residents $6 billion to clean. And Michael Dukakis promises to do for America what he's done for Massachusetts!").

Get the governor worked for Bush in 1988. Why? For one thing, Dukakis wasn't very aggressive about defending his record. For another thing, voters were pretty happy with the Reagan-Bush record. Why should they take a risk on a governor with questionable priorities?

Four years later, when President Bush faced the governor of Arkansas, he played get the governor again. "Arkansas is 50th in quality of the environment, 50th in the percentage of adults with a college degree, 50th in per capita spending on criminal justice...." His ads even sounded the same: "Now Bill Clinton wants to do for America what he's done for Arkansas. America can't take that risk."

It didn't work as well in 1992, however. Why not? For one thing, Clinton vigorously defended his record. An angry Clinton declared in October 1992: "No matter how much Mr. Bush tries to convince you to the contrary, his own government says Arkansas leads the nation in private-sector job growth." Voters were very unhappy with the Bush record in 1992. So when President Bush argued that Arkansas was badly managed, a lot of voters wondered, "Who's he to talk?"

Will get the governor work for Gore this year? Gov. Bush is certainly running on his record. "I'm proud of my record, my vision," he insists. But no Dukakis, he. "I'll counterpunch if I have to," Bush said in Little Rock, Ark. "I'll defend my ground and defend my honor and defend my record."

In fact, the political terrain for 2000 looks more like 1988 than 1992. A presidential Administration with a strong economic record. And a governor with questionable priorities. As Gore put it in Texas this past week, "Governor Bush's top priority was a big tax break for the powerful interests, at a time when Texas is worst in the nation for families without health insurance, worst for industrial pollution, worst for families living in poverty. And now Texas has a budget shortfall."

Unexpected Medicaid costs and prison expenses produced cost overruns of some $610 million in this year's Texas budget. Even with savings in other programs, the shortfall runs about $460 million. Gov. Bush claims it's not a problem because the surplus will be large enough to take care of it (as high as $1.4 billion, according to the state comptroller, or about three times the size of the shortfall). Funds to cover the shortfall will be borrowed from the surplus, pending a supplemental appropriation from the Legislature when it reconvenes in January.

But Bush is questioning Gore's credibility by pointing to the Vice President's attacks against him. "I know now what Bill Bradley meant when he said, 'How can we trust this man as President when we can't trust him as a candidate?'" Bush told reporters at his ranch last week.

Texas Weekly explains the situation this way: "Spending is greater than expected. Guess what? Revenues are greater than expected, too.... There's plenty of money to cover the spending." The state "expected" wrong, and got bailed out by a larger-than-expected surplus. Saved by the economy. Just like the federal budget.

For Gore's allies, the air in Houston has become the water in Boston Harbor. The Sierra Club has been running an ad informing voters that "Texas has the most industrial air pollution in the country." It won't be long before Gore says, "My opponent claims he'll do for America what he's done for Texas. Boy, I fear for my country." Which happens to be what Bush's father said in 1988 aboard a boat in Boston Harbor, with the name of the state changed from Texas to Massachusetts.

Gore went to Texas to drill for issues. He may have hit a gusher. Not because Texas has a lot of problems, but because Gore can relate this latest problem, the budget shortfall, to Bush's priorities. As governor, Bush got a tax cut that put important public programs at risk and could have endangered the state's fiscal stability. Nothing terrible happened in Texas. But the image of Bush as a risky manager with dubious priorities has been created. One that contrasts sharply with the Clinton Administration's popular agenda and strong record of economic management. Gore may be right. His foray into Texas may prove to be the turning point of this campaign.


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William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C.

For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com.

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