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  Recent commentary from National Journal: Legal Affairs: Prayer and Creationism -- Met With Supreme Hostility, by Stuart Taylor Jr. (July 18, 2000) It's unclear how and where the Supreme Court can somehow stop its slide down a slippery slope. Media: All the World's a Chrysler Building, by William Powers (July 18, 2000) DaimlerChrysler -- eager to seem less German -- plans a "virtual headquarters" in the Chrysler Building. Social Studies: Can the Death Penalty Be Saved From Its Supporters?, by Jonathan Rauch (July 11, 2000) The people who stand to gain the most from doubt reducing steps are the proponents of capital punishment. Legal Affairs: How the 'Conservative' Supreme Court Leans to the Liberal Side, by Stuart Taylor Jr. (July 11, 2000) The justices should not consult public opinion before dealing with hot issues. Media: Anyone But Us, by William Powers (July 11, 2000) The incumbent liberal media is terribly unpopular. Let's elect a new media, and the sooner the better. Political Pulse: The Court Still Amazes and Outrages, by William Schneider (July 11, 2000) Late June's flood of Supreme Court rulings left conservatives churlish. More from National Journal. Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. |
 Political Pulse:Wanna Run? Where Ya From? July 18, 2000 People don't vote for Vice President. Dan Quayle proved that. In fact, when's the last time a running mate actually affected the outcome of a presidential election? You'd have to go back 40 years, to 1960, when John F. Kennedy's controversial choice of Lyndon B. Johnson helped put Texas in the Democratic column. That was a close election. This one may be another, with all but hand-to-hand combat over every piece of disputed territory. Which is why geography once again looms as an important consideration. Actually, when it comes to picking a running mate, there's an old way to do it and a new way. The old way was to balance the ticket. That's what Kennedy did in 1960. It worked. That's what Michael Dukakis did in 1988, when he put another Texan, Lloyd Bentsen, on the Democratic ticket. It didn't work. One problem with a geographic strategy is that most big states are not really battlegrounds this year. Al Gore seems well ahead in California and New York. Most strategists don't say he needs to take out "California insurance." As for New York, there's a reason why Hillary Clinton chose to run for the Senate there. New York has 2 million more Democrats than Republicans. This advantage gave Bill Clinton a victory margin of more than 30 points over Bob Dole in 1996. The other two big states, Texas and Florida, both have governors named Bush. Texas is a slam dunk for George W., and if his brother Jeb can't help him in Florida, nobody can. Most geographic strategies focus on the "Central/Atlantic Battle Belt," five highly competitive states with at least 15 electoral votes apiece -- New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois. What do they offer Gore in terms of running mates? New Jersey has ex-presidential candidate Bill Bradley. He has national stature and credibility on the reform issue. But also a lot of bad chemistry with Gore. Bush could pick Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. Woman, that's good. Ardent supporter of abortion rights, that could be a problem. Pennsylvania? Fifth-most populous, but no big-name statewide Democrats available for Gore. On the GOP side, Bush is known to like Gov. Tom Ridge -- popular, Catholic, Vietnam vet. But Ridge also backs abortion rights, although he doesn't go as far as Whitman, who vetoed a bill to ban late-term abortions. Ohio has a scarcity of statewide Democrats, as well. Republicans have Sen. George Voinovich. Catholic, anti-abortion, former mayor of Cleveland and former governor -- he knows how to get Democratic votes. Ohio has Rep. John R. Kasich. Remember him? Ran for President. Briefly. Offers a combination of Washington experience and youthful exuberance. In Michigan, Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer is well regarded statewide. For Gore, the impact of putting an African-American on the ticket would far outweigh any geographical calculation. Gov. John Engler was an early Bush booster. But he failed to deliver in a crucial primary, partly because some Democrats came out to vote against Engler. Illinois offers Gore Richard J. Durbin, a Democratic Senator with a populist image and a strong anti-tobacco record. Illinois offers Bush Peter G. Fitzgerald, a Republican Senator who's Catholic and conservative but independent-minded on such issues as gun control and health care reform. The new way to choose a running mate is not to worry about balancing the ticket at all. Instead, make a statement. Clinton made a statement when he put Gore on the ticket in 1992: "I really am a New Democrat." Bush needs to make the same kind of statement this year: "I really am a New Republican, compassionate and inclusive." That message would come through loud and clear if Bush put an abortion-rights supporter such as Ridge on the ticket. Ridge would pose risks, of course. The Religious Right would find him hard to swallow, especially after last month's 5-4 Supreme Court ruling allowing late-term abortions. "I could not accept that one," Sen. Jesse Helms of North Carolina said when asked whether he could support Ridge on the ticket. But his opposition would make an even stronger statement: Helms doesn't control the GOP any more. Bush could also put Elizabeth Dole on the ticket. She opposes abortion, but, like Bush, says abortion should not be a litmus test for appointments. Gore needs to make a statement, too: "I'm my own man." Gore needs a running mate with New Democratic credentials who is also respected by liberals. Someone who would make Gore look strong and secure. Someone who's independent of Bill Clinton. Who could that be? Bill Bradley comes to mind. Some people think Gore could make a statement by putting another New Democrat similar to himself on the ticket, maybe Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana or Bob Graham of Florida. But then, Gore would be doing the same thing Clinton did in 1992. That's no way to show you're your own man. In the end, there are 10 good reasons for choosing a running mate. No. 1: Find someone who will help you win. The other nine reasons don't matter. The good news for Bush is that he has two choices who would help him win -- Colin Powell and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who challenged Bush in the early primaries. The bad news is that neither wants to be considered. What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. All material copyright © 2000 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. | ||||||||||||
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