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Recent commentary from National Journal:

Social Studies: Farm Forecast -- Aid, With 32.3 Billion In Scattered Dollars, by Jonathan Rauch (June 27, 2000)
In 1986, Congress paid farmers $25.8 billion, but conservative Republicans have left that record in the dust.

Legal Affairs: Why We Should All Be Grateful to Janet Reno, by Stuart Taylor Jr. (June 27, 2000)
Reno wasn't just protecting Clinton and Gore from independent counsels. She was protecting the country.

Media: Too True to Mention, by William Powers (June 27, 2000)
A New York Times Magazine writer abandoned political "balance" and revealed his personal beliefs. It was great.

Legal Affairs: Cabbies, Cops, Pizza Deliveries, and Racial Profiling, by Stuart Taylor Jr. (June 20, 2000)
Racial profiling by police is not worth the costs. Racial profiling by cabbies is another matter.

Media: The Signed-On Majority, by William Powers (June 20, 2000)
Think those political Web sites will help you form your decision about the next President? Think again.

Political Pulse: High-Tech Queries, Slow-Mo Answers, by William Schneider (June 20, 2000)
Things have changed a lot since Al Gore invented the Internet.

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from National JournalPolitical Pulse:
OK, Al, Who Are You Today?


The Gore campaign seems to be suffering from multiple personality disorder

by William Schneider


June 27, 2000

Has the presidential race changed since Super Tuesday, when the nominees were effectively decided? For George W. Bush, yes. For Al Gore, no. Which is why the Gore campaign is undergoing a badly needed shake-up.

Look at the number of Americans with a favorable opinion of each contender. Right after Super Tuesday in early March, Bush and Gore had exactly the same favorability rating in the CNN-Time magazine poll: 53 percent. But recent polls show that Bush has used the post-primary period more productively than Gore. Now, 61 percent of the people responding have a favorable opinion of Bush, while Gore's rating is about the same 54 percent.

Democrats can console themselves with one thought: Nobody's paying much attention to the campaign right now. As political consultants like to say, people don't look at tire ads until they have to buy tires. And people don't pay much attention to politics until they have to buy a President. When voters finally start paying attention this fall, the argument goes, the issues will turn the campaign around for Gore.

Maybe. But this month's CNN-Time poll has very little good news for Gore on the issues. Most Americans favor stricter gun control, but they say Bush is closer to their views. Most Americans support abortion rights, but just as many of them choose Bush's stance on the issue as choose Gore's. On guns and abortion, Bush seems to have convinced the public that he's a moderate who would take a balanced position.

Even on education, a traditionally Democratic issue, voters judge Gore and Bush to be about equal. In fact, they give Bush a slight edge on Social Security. Social Security! The mother of all Democratic issues! Gore does retain the edge over Bush on Medicare, though it's a small one. (Forty-two percent say Gore would handle Medicare better, 36 percent say Bush.) That's where Republicans are racing to catch up with Democratic proposals to cover prescription drug costs. If Gore can't win on education, Social Security, and Medicare, it's all over.

"I have become very impatient with my own tendency to put a finger to the political winds and proceed cautiously," Gore wrote in his book Earth in the Balance, adding, "When caution breeds timidity, a good politician listens to other voices." That's Gore's problem. His campaign seems to be floundering, not because it has no strategy, but because it has too many strategies. Gore's support has languished all year, never breaking above 45 percent in the polls. He has the same problem every Vice President has had. He needs to show voters he's his own man. But just who is that man? Gore keeps reinventing himself, telegraphing a new Al Gore each time.

Last fall, when he realized that Bill Bradley was becoming a serious threat in the primaries, Gore moved his campaign to Nashville and signaled voters that the buttoned-up Al Gore was turning into the dressed-down Al Gore -- Mr. Natural. "This is a very powerful moment in this campaign," Gore said, "powerful because of what home means.... Coming here reminds me about an awful lot that I learned from you."

A consultant told Gore that, to beat Bradley, he had to become an alpha male. So Mr. Fightin' Man emerged. "I'm going to fight for you! I need you to fight for me!" he told a labor rally. Once the primaries were under way, Gore turned into Mr. Hatchet Man. "Bradley wants to eliminate Medicaid!" he warned Democrats. "Replace it with capped vouchers! Every Democrat in America should be up in arms about it!"

This strategy worked against Bradley, so after the primaries Gore tried it against Bush. "Casino economics!" he called Bush's tax cut plan. "Risky tax scheme!" But a hatchet man looks too vice presidential. So lately, Gore has become Mr. Nice Guy. Last week, he said in a television interview: "Bill Bradley put forth some big ideas in the campaign last year. I complimented him."

Seeing the success of the McCain campaign, Gore has tried to position himself as Mr. Reformer. "I know firsthand what is wrong with the way we fund political campaigns," Gore told an audience at Marquette University in March.

Then, seeking to establish his independence from Clinton, the Vice President tried to distance himself from the White House on the Elián Gonzalez case. But instead of seeing Gore as his own man, a lot of voters saw him as Mr. Pander Bear.

The Gore campaign seems to be suffering from multiple personality disorder. William M. Daley's job as Gore's new campaign chairman is to find a persona that works. Which one is that? It almost doesn't matter. Gore has to get two points across. One: "I'm my own man." Two: "I'm not totally driven by politics." The impression created by the reinventions is that he would do or say anything to win. Bill Clinton could constantly reinvent himself and get away with it. But that's exactly why Gore can't do it. It makes him look too much like Clinton.

Last week the newest Al Gore, Mr. Prosperity, emerged -- sunny, optimistic, buoyant about America's future. "To those who say prosperity has achieved its full reach, I say, just watch us!" he exhorted his audience. "I'm here today to tell you, you ain't seen nothing yet!" If Gore starts talking about "a shining city on a hill," we'll know it's finally happened: He's turned himself into Ronald Reagan.


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William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C.

For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com.

All material copyright © 2000 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
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