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  Recent commentary from National Journal: Social Studies: Two Cheers for the Clinton Doctrine. (OK, Maybe Just One), by Jonathan Rauch (May 31, 2000) The people want humanitarianism on the cheap, and that is what the Clinton Doctrine gives them. Media: Style as Substance, by William Powers (May 31, 2000) China trade debate coverage has been dominated by lumbering masters of the Henry Kissinger school of prose. Political Pulse: Ho Hum, the Shootings Go On, by William Schneider (May 24, 2000) So far, a tidal wave of public support for gun control has not swept over American politics. Legal Affairs: Why You Can't Sue Your Rapist in Federal Court, by Stuart Taylor Jr. (May 24, 2000) "When you think about a rape in a college dormitory, do you think about interstate commerce?" Media: Oprah Waldo Emerson, by William Powers (May 24, 2000) To the media class, Oprah is the epitome of life's bottomless cruelty. More from National Journal. Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. |
 Political Pulse:Can Rick Beat Hillary? Maybe May 31, 2000 An obscure member of Congress from Long Island vs. the first lady of the United States? Doesn't sound like much of a contest. That's Rep. Rick A. Lazio's problem as he opens his Senate campaign against Hillary Rodham Clinton. It's called "the stature gap." New York is the Empire State. It has a tradition of electing big national figures to the Senate. Figures such as Robert Wagner, Herbert Lehman, Averell Harriman, Jacob Javits, Robert F. Kennedy, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan. Hillary Rodham Clinton falls in line with that tradition. She's already a major figure with a national following. Lazio probably won't have to worry too much about raising money. For Republicans, he's the "ABC" candidate -- Anybody But Clinton. Conservatives all over the country dream of the day when the name "Clinton" will be banished from the news. They'll send him money for the same reason they sent Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani $9 million. Not because they like him or agree with him -- although Lazio's a lot more in tune with the national GOP than Giuliani. They'll send him money because they want to stop Hillary. Can he? Lazio's not likely to have serious problems with either money or name recognition. With all the attention being paid to this race, his name recognition has been rising by the day. But he still has a stature problem. Lazio does not have much of a record. The warm support of Gov. George E. Pataki, New York City Mayor Giuliani, and respected national Republicans (such as, maybe, Sen. John McCain of Arizona) could boost Lazio's stature a bit. But the only way he can win is to make the election a referendum on Clinton. Which it stands a better chance of becoming now that Giuliani's out. As Lazio said the day he declared his candidacy, "Her ambition is the issue." There are some encouraging signs for Lazio. A Quinnipiac College poll taken before Giuliani withdrew showed Hillary Clinton leading Lazio 50 percent to 31 percent. A 19-point lead -- that's a landslide! But 72 percent of New York voters said they didn't know enough about Lazio to have an opinion of him. In a trial heat between Mrs. Clinton and an opponent most voters had never heard of, only 50 percent of respondents were willing to say they would vote for her. That suggests she'd face a tight race against any opponent. Especially one who is less controversial than she is. Which is why Democrats, by depicting Lazio as a foot soldier in Newt Gingrich's army hope to make him more controversial than she is. The game is now on to define Lazio. He's got to define himself before the Democrats can do it for him. The fact is, he's not easy to define. Democrats will point to the fact that he signed the GOP's Contract With America and voted for a lot of its provisions. He opposes federal funding for abortions in most cases. He voted to eliminate the Education Department. And he voted to impeach President Clinton. But Lazio also has a lot of moderate credentials. He supports abortion rights. He has a strong record on gun control and environmental protection. He defied Republican leaders by voting in favor of President Clinton's Family Leave Act. He has supported increased arts funding, which is a big issue in New York City. It's hard to pigeonhole Lazio. He described himself last week as "a centrist, a mainstream Republican-conservative on budget and tax issues and national security, pragmatic on social issues." That's a pretty big pigeonhole. It more or less describes Gov. Pataki, who's a popular figure in New York. The Democratic game plan is to nationalize the New York Senate contest -- make it a race between President Clinton's policies, which are very popular in New York, and the Republican Congress. The defining issue for Mrs. Clinton? Tax cuts. "Together we must stand against a Republican leadership that is set on irresponsible fiscal policies that threaten to return us to the bad old days of skyrocketing deficits and recurring recessions," she says in her stump speech. The Republican plan is to personalize the New York Senate race -- to make it a race about Hillary. And to promote Lazio as a true New Yorker with deep roots in the state. "I don't have to fake it," he told The New York Times. "New York isn't just a place I represent. New York is my home. I've never needed an exploratory committee to decide where I want to live." In some ways, Lazio may be a stronger candidate than Giuliani was. Lazio is less likely to offend upstate New Yorkers, who dislike anyone from New York City. And unlike Giuliani, he will be endorsed by New York's Conservative Party, without which no Republican has won a statewide race in 25 years. Is resentment of Mrs. Clinton so strong that a substantial number of New Yorkers will vote for a largely unknown candidate with no proven record? Maybe. It's happened before. Recently, in fact. In 1994, New Yorkers elected Pataki, an obscure state senator, to be their governor. Pataki won because the election became a referendum on his opponent, Gov. Mario Cuomo. In 1998, Charles E. Schumer, a largely unknown Democratic congressman from Brooklyn, got elected to the Senate. Schumer won because the election became a referendum on his opponent, Sen. Alfonse D'Amato. They say you can't beat somebody with nobody. But sometimes you can. It just depends on who the somebody is. What do you think? Discuss this article in the Politics & Society conference of Post & Riposte. More from National Journal. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C. For information on National Journal Group publications, see NationalJournal.com. All material copyright © 2000 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved. | ||||||||||||
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