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Should We Worry About the Income Gap?

August 13 - August 27, 1996

Created by senior editor Jack Beatty
and new-media editor Katie Bacon.



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Presidential Seal

EXECUTIVE-DECISION MEMORANDUM



To: The President of the United States
From: D. N. Forser, Chief of Staff
Re: The Income Gap
Date: August 13, 1996




Dear Mr./Ms. President:

Think of it as the quiet crisis. It happens behind the headlines and not on the six o'clock news. It has been happening (quietly) ever since the oil shocks of the early 1970s: a slow erosion of the incomes, living standards, and children's life chances of the great American middle class. Except in election years it has been happening beyond the ken of politicians, who live in the Other America, the land of the top 20 percent of American earners. Occasionally, a politician will reveal how distant the Other America is, as when a South Carolina Congressman recently defined "middle class" as people earning up to $180,000 a year. Politicians forget about this crisis as soon as they have milked every possible vote out of it ("I feel your pain"), because it is not even remotely clear what public policy can do about it. Moreover, because of the lavish private funding of American elections, politicians tend to deliver for the people who pay for their campaigns -- nearly all of whom are in the top 20 percent.

Because it is an election year, the presidential candidates have begun to rediscover the issue. Already, we have heard two alternative strategies for restoring middle-class prosperity and for addressing the growing inequality between the middle class and the overclass. One is basically to do nothing -- though of course no candidate would ever admit that. But cut through the persiflage and do nothing is the strategy. The other strategy is to stimulate economic growth such that prosperity trickles down to the middle class. There is also a third -- and more unusual -- strategy, to which we will devote more space. It involves an overhaul of our tax system along with measures to give workers more security and representation.

It's time for you to decide, Mr./Ms. President, how to address the income gap issue. Your options are:


Option A: Stand Firm


Mr./Ms. President,

The economy is going through a historic shift. A truly global market is upon us. This change is good for America -- we can compete in this new market. But it is not yet good for all Americans.

If we take the wrong steps now we will impede our ability to compete. If we fail to get our fiscal house in order, the wage squeeze on the middle class will only get worse. It is easy to cut taxes. It is easy to borrow our children's money. It is hard to stay the course.

This wage squeeze or income gap is a temporary phenomenon; something like it happened a century ago when the local economy of the nineteenth century yielded to the national economy of the early twentieth. There's no question that people were left behind in that shift, but suppose they had been able to shape policy? Would the United States be better off today if the Populists had won? No: even the great grandchildren of the Populists would be worse off. Why? Because they wanted to restore the past.

Today, many of those who keen most about the middle-class squeeze want to return to the past. They want to go back to the days when the United States commanded 40 percent of the world economy and the great American middle class was born. We can't go back, Mr./Ms. President. Nothing can change the fact that we command less than 25 percent of the world economy today. We have to go ahead. In the long run Americans gained by forging a national market. In the long run they will gain from participating in the world market. Your job is to reconcile them to the patience of history, to focus their hopes on their computer-literate children, on tomorrow instead of yesterday.

Small steps can and should be taken -- aid targeted for adult education is an example -- as long as nothing endangers the fundamentals of our prosperity. These are: free-trade agreements, a low-inflation climate for investors domestic and foreign alike, a budget under control, low-interest rates, and stable economic growth. Upon these fundamentals rests the future of the American Dream.



Option B
Follow the Trickle-down Trail


Mr./Ms. President,

Is it nostalgic to want the American Dream now? Then put this down as a counsel of nostalgia.

The middle class is hurting because growth is too slow. We need to get America moving again. Economic growth of 2 to 2.5 percent -- the pace it's been at in the 1990s -- is just too slow to raise incomes.

What will? The same medicine John F. Kennedy gave the slow-growth economy of the 1950s and early 1960s: sweeping tax cuts. Halving the capital-gains tax would encourage more investment in companies. Cutting income-tax rates would give each family more money to spend; essentially, middle-class Americans would get the raise they have needed for years. There is nothing magic about this. It is the formula that John Kennedy in the 1960s and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s followed. It worked then. It will work now.

Free the free-enterprise system, unshackle from burdensome federal regulation the energies of American enterprise, and talk of a middle-class crisis will rapidly dissipate.

Yes, across the board tax cuts will disproptionately benefit the affluent. But who cares if everybody else is doing better too? A rising tide does lift all boats. Loose that tide, Mr./Ms. President. Believe in it.




Option C
Fight for an Economic Overhaul


Mr./Ms. President,

America used to be seen as the land of opportunity and the land of equality. It would be difficult to call it that now. During the past two years ten million jobs have been created, the federal deficit has been halved, and inflation has averaged less than three percent a year. But one important statistic has not improved: that of income inequality. According to Census Bureau figures the gap between those at the top of the wage scale and those at the bottom has been increasing. Since 1968 the average income of the bottom 20 percent of earners rose only .8 percent -- from $7,702 to $7,762 -- while the average income of the top 20 percent rose 44 percent -- from $73,754 to $105,945.

The gap stopped growing between 1987 and 1992, but it shot up again between 1992 and 1994 -- the same two years that produced the rosy figures cited above. So even when the economy as a whole improved, the income gap continued to worsen; it is now the widest it has been since the Second World War. This is not a problem that you can leave alone, hoping it will suddenly disappear: as the workplace becomes increasingly dependent on mechanization and computer technology, more and more lower-skilled workers will become unnecessary. And the people who are being paid a pittance or who are laid off will not be the only ones affected. Who will buy all the products American companies are producing? The 20 percent of workers whose wages aren't declining?

If you decide that something substantive needs to be done about this situation, here are some steps you can take.

The most obvious way to narrow the gap between the rich and poor is to create new jobs, which would increase competition and put upward pressure on wages. In order to do this we need to increase consumer demand by cutting taxes, as is suggested in Option 2. To finance this you would have to revisit your recent Executive Decision, in which you decided to go ahead with balancing the budget despite the negative effects it might have on the economy. (Click here to review this decision).

Cutting taxes across the board will only increase the income gap -- not to mention empty our country's coffers. Why not ask those at the top of the scale, whose wages and wealth have been growing steadily since the 1970s, to pay slightly more in taxes? You could institute a tax on wealth (i.e. stocks, luxury items, and savings accounts), modeled after ones in Europe, in which those with incomes over $100,000 would have to pay a small tax (starting at about .05% in a graduated system) on their holdings. Pensions, annuities, and household items would not be taxed. Another method would be to increase the tax on luxury items that only the wealthy buy -- such as expensive cars or antiques. While this would raise most citizens' taxes very little, it would bring in billions of dollars a year that could be invested in training programs for workers who are being left behind by technology.

Many economists agree that one of the main causes of the widening income gap is the increasing use of technology in the workplace, which has resulted in many high-paying jobs for a small group, while the manufacturing jobs that once supported much of the country are disappearing -- victims either of mechanization or cheaper overseas labor. What about establishing training programs that people could attend after graduating from high school? And for those workers already in the workplace we could follow up on an idea that Bill Clinton proposed in 1992: each company must invest 1.5% of its payroll in continuing education or training for its workers. This would result in a better-educated workforce -- better equipped to compete for jobs in today's global market.

Perhaps the most important part of this program would be to initiate legislation encouraging better treatment of workers. Since most companies' main interest is the bottom line, they will keep wages stagnant as long as possible. Likewise, as long as they have to provide health-coverage for their full-time employees, they will be tempted to hire more temporary workers. Universal health-care coverage would help solve many of the thorniest problems confronting your Administration, and it is of the utmost concern to many of your voters. Changing the labor laws to make it easier for workers to join unions (and penalizing those companies that replace striking workers with permanent ones) would give workers more power to combat downsizing and cuts in pay and benefits. It is not a coincidence that the income gap began to grow just as unions began their most precipitous decline in membership, in the late 1960s and the early 1970s. Attack the problem from the other side also: reward those companies that treat their workers well with tax breaks and investment credits.

If you want to travel farther down this road, there's a lot more you could do: end tax breaks for companies which shut down domestic operations to move abroad; invest in the country's infrastructure as other countries have done to spur economic growth; provide tuition credits to help poorer families send their children to college. The most important thing, though, is for you to realize that the income gap is an issue of great importance to America's future, one that will not disappear with the changing economy or through minor tax cuts. The problem can only be solved by giving workers a voice and by making sure that everyone pays their fair share.


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