Nate Silver is back, and back in the news. Silver’s appearance on ABC’s This Week on Sunday, where he said that if the election were held today, the Republicans would likely win the Senate, got immense attention. On Fox News, anchors gleefully announced that Silver, their bête noire in 2012, had predicted a Republican majority in November, a “fact” dutifully reported in many news outlets. Other reports said that Democrats, who loved Silver’s tracking of the 2012 presidential elections and his spot-on analysis then, were now furious with him.
The breathless reporting was kind of amusing. What Silver actually said was anything but shocking or particularly newsworthy; as political scientist Jonathan Bernstein noted in his blog, it was pretty much what our best analysts of congressional elections, Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg, have been saying for some time, and fits some basic facts.
Democrats have more seats, and more vulnerable seats up (duh—it is the cohort elected in 2008, when Democrats won many seats in Republican states). Midterm elections, especially in a president’s second term, see a sag in turnout for the party in the White House. Barack Obama’s approval rating is in the low to mid-40s, dangerous territory for his party. So a net loss of six seats or more for Democrats is clearly feasible.
But Silver did not “predict” that outcome (in fact, he gave a quite broad range of possible outcomes). He provided a snapshot as of last Sunday. It is an accurate snapshot—but we have a whole photo album ahead for the next seven-plus months.
Let’s put the caveats aside and explore what the policy process would look like if Republicans do win a majority in the Senate and hold their majority in the House. The bottom line is that the prospects for significant advances in solving problems in key areas would be bleak. But it is more complicated, and more interesting, than that.
First, the real downside. Start by imagining what the GOP zeitgeist will be if the party picks off six, seven, or eight seats. My guess, the same as after the 2010 midterms: “Man, did that politics of obstruction work like a charm! Let’s double down on it and take the whole enchilada in 2016!” If there is no public backlash against an utterly dysfunctional Congress and a near-complete lack of productivity, why rock the boat?
That attitude would combine with a common reaction of lawmakers outside the president’s party in the final two years of a two-term president: Why do anything now that involves compromise when we have a chance to do what we want after the next election? And there would be another factor moving toward a radical-right dominance: an explosion of interest from Republican candidates for the presidency, and a jolt of confidence on the right that things are going their way and there is no need to compromise on a nominee. More candidates would emerge from the right, joining the Ted Cruz/Marco Rubio/Rand Paul/Mike Huckabee contingent. Watching the putative presidential candidates all vote against the budget compromise pulled together by Paul Ryan and Patty Murray—and then watching Ryan join them and vote against the debt-ceiling bill that basically ratified his spending deal—made it clear to me that the energy on the presidential nominating side is all on the bedrock right edge.