With Congress away for the next month, it gives us time to pause and consider the various train wrecks that lie ahead when the members return September 9—and we are talking trainwrecks of the deadly variety. Three weeks after Congress returns, the new fiscal year will start; most of government as we know it will shut down unless both chambers can agree on a continuing resolution to keep government funded until they can finish their appropriations work and/or settle their differences over spending priorities.
A few weeks after that, we will bump up against the debt ceiling, with another confrontation or set of confrontations a near certainty. Just days into the recess, we are seeing a huge ramp-up in pressure on all Republicans from the Right to use every weapon possible to destroy and defund Obamacare. Any vote that keeps funding for it, even if it is to protect the full faith and credit of the U.S., this argument goes, is a treasonous one.
More than likely, we will see Republican leaders attempt first to achieve death by a thousand cuts, proposing a very short-term continuing resolution, perhaps for a month, to work things through—with the insistence that Congress cut off funds for the health care program during that time—followed by another, and another. And we might well see the two elements, government shutdown and debt ceiling, tied together for maximum leverage—the equivalent of terrorists saying we will kill our hostages and blow up New York unless you accede to our demands. A government shutdown and a breach of the debt limit—what a great formula for economic recovery!
To review the scenario from last December, we all knew that if there were no deal among the House, Senate, and White House by midnight on December 31, we would see, among other things, taxes go up automatically on everyone (and, on January 1 or 2, President Obama would have proposed a massive tax cut from the new status quo for everyone except the rich). House Speaker John Boehner tried vainly to get some traction for negotiating a deal with the president, but he was rudely rebuffed by his caucus; he then washed his hands of the whole thing. At the eleventh hour, Vice President Joe Biden jumped in and cut a deal with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that swept through the Senate and limped through the House, narrowly avoiding catastrophe.
That was then. Today Boehner is, if anything, weaker than he was last year, and nearly incapable of forging any kind of compromise with the president, much less commanding support within his own caucus. The embarrassment last week on the transportation appropriations bill, which followed the debacle on the farm bill, shows a House majority that can only steer right, and head into the ditch. That leaves the Senate. The only route to resolution of the appropriations and debt-ceiling showdowns—which may or may not include one or more shutdowns and a debt-limit breach before a deal is made—is through a broad bipartisan Senate majority joining with the president and forcing the House to vote on it, with more Democrats than Republicans supporting it. So will there be a last-minute deal in the Senate brokered by McConnell and Biden? Not a chance.