When the former Florida governor wrote his new book, he was ahead of the GOP on the issue. By the time it came out, the party had leapfrogged in front of him.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush's new book was aimed at nudging a reluctant Republican Party toward reforms that would allow illegal immigrants to live and work without fear of deportation.
But by recommending only legal residency and backing off his past support for citizenship, Bush is throwing cold water over a fledgling deal in the Senate, denting his own reputation as a bold policymaker and stoking speculation that he will run for president in 2016.
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None of those things were supposed to happen.
The stunning reversal by one of the Republican Party's leading champions of immigration reform and Hispanic outreach, at least in part, comes down to a colossal political miscalculation.
When Bush and co-author Clint Bolick were writing the book during the 2012 presidential campaign, the GOP was veering far to the right. Republican nominee Mitt Romney had staked out a hardline position against illegal immigration, blasting his primary rivals as pro-amnesty and promoting "self-deportation" for undocumented workers. Bush sent the book to the printer before Christmas -- weeks before a handful of Senate Republicans embraced a sweeping overhaul that, like the proposals backed by Bush's brother, former President George W. Bush, would allow illegal immigrants to earn citizenship.
In other words, Bush's party moved a lot faster than the book-publishing world.
"Gov. Bush has always wanted to move the party towards a bigger solution that would provide residency and a path to legal citizenship, but he knew it would require getting Republicans to the table," Republican strategist Sally Bradshaw, Bush's former chief of staff, said in an email to National Journal. "This book and his recommendations reflect that situation and his attempt to get the GOP talking about a possible solution. The focus of this effort is legal residency and a completely redesigned immigration system."
In an interview Tuesday morning on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Bush started backpedaling off his opposition to citizenship in his book. "If you can craft that in law, where you can have a path to citizenship where there isn't an incentive for people to come illegally, I'm for it," he said. "I don't have a problem with it. I don't see you how you do it, but I'm not smart enough to figure out every aspect of a really complex law."
The bottom line is that in Bush's zeal to kickstart an immigration reform debate in the GOP, he apparently laid the groundwork for his own flip-flop. While he's arguing against citizenship for illegal immigrants in his book because it would give them a leg up over those who applied legally, last year in an interview with Charlie Rose on CBS, he said, "You have to deal with this issue. You can't ignore it, and so either a path to citizenship, which I would support -- and that does put me probably out of the mainstream of most conservatives -- or a path to legalization, a path to residency of some kind."
Despite Bush's intentions to help pave that path, his position on citizenship in the book makes him appear to be at odds with his brother and his former protégé and longtime ally, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who came out in favor of a path to citizenship in January along with a bipartisan group of senators. Exit polls that showed seven of 10 Hispanic voters rejected Romney have pushed Republican Party leaders to rethink the party's immigration policy.
"He sent the book to the printer at a time when he was anticipating the direction of the debate tilting against citizenship. It is clearly contrary to what he has said before," said Marshall Fitz, director of immigration policy at the liberal Center for American Progress. "In hindsight, Americans have always judged severely efforts to deny citizenship to classes of people. Is this really the GOP's path out of the political wilderness?"
What's more, Bush's revamped position on citizenship looks like the maneuvering of a potential presidential candidate who wants to outflank Rubio and appease the conservative, anti-amnesty contingent that dominates GOP primaries. "It is absolutely vital to the integrity of our immigration system that actions have consequences -- in this case, that those who violated the laws can remain but cannot obtain the cherished fruits of citizenship," the book says. "It must be a basic prerequisite of citizenship to respect the rule of law."