Nate Silver Wasn't the Only One to Nail the Election—nor Was He the First

More

A comprehensive look at the election predictions of America's top pundits

Pundits3.png

So who got it right?

We gathered a selection of some of the smarter political prognosticators and grouped them according to how many electoral votes they believed Barack Obama would receive. Here's a full table:

Screen shot 2012-11-07 at 11.22.58 AM.png

Let's assume that Florida continues in the same direction and Obama wins it. With those 29 electoral votes, he'll have 332 total. You're going to hear a lot of praise for Nate Silver in the next couple of days; in fact, you're probably already sick of hearing about him. Silver correctly predicted 332 based on states, although his model ended up at 313 votes. But he's not the only one who really nailed it. See also: Sam Wang, Drew Linzer, Josh Putnam, and Markos Moulitsas. In fact, Linzer's model has been hovering in that range for months!

Interestingly, the greatest number of predictions came just under that -- guessing Obama would take between 290 and 309 votes.

Now, who got it most wrong? One person who was too aggressive Jim Cramer, for one, although his 440 was always unhinged (see how bizarre his map would have looked here). And on the pro-Romney end of the range, a lot of people were way off. Dick Morris and Michael Barone have already come out to eat crow. There are plenty of others who ought to own up their misjudgments, too -- and figure out where their predictions went off the rails.

Rebecca Greenfield has an exhaustive look at the predictions over at The Atlantic Wire.

Jump to comments

David A. Graham

David Graham is an associate editor at The Atlantic, where he oversees the Politics Channel. He previously reported for Newsweek, The Wall Street Journal, and The National.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

'I Thought It Was Really Funny, but No One Else Did'

A day with New Yorker cartoonist Joe Dator

Video

New Yorkers: The Winemaker

Make your own wine ... in New York City

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

A Video Letter From the Editor

Highlights from the May 2013 issue

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

The Rise of Environmentalism

Tracking 50 years, from the Love Canal disaster to Greenpeace

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Writers

Up
Down

More in Politics

In Focus

2013 National Geographic Traveler Photo Contest

Just In