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Rubio's Immigration Plan Could Bail Romney Out With Hispanics

Embracing the Florida senator's alternative to the DREAM Act would improve, though not fix, the GOP's standing in the key demographic.

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It's unclear whether the lifeline that Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is offering Mitt Romney is long enough to lift the presumptive Republican presidential nominee from the hole he dug with Hispanic voters during the primary race. But Romney's odds of extricating himself will almost certainly improve if he accepts, rather than rejects, Rubio's help.

Rubio's lifeline is the alternative he is formulating to the DREAM Act backed by President Obama and most congressional Democrats. Their proposal would allow the children of illegal immigrants to remain legally in the U.S. and eventually to obtain citizenship if they serve in the military or attend college. Rubio's version, which he will likely introduce this summer, would instead provide to these young people nonimmigrant work visas that would allow them to remain legally in the U.S. but would not guarantee them citizenship. Significantly, though, Rubio's approach as he has described it would not preclude those children from following the same pathways to citizenship available to others holding that type of visa, such as marrying an American citizen or receiving sponsorship from an employer.

Romney remained noncommittal about Rubio's proposal on Monday as the two men campaigned together in Pennsylvania. Although he didn't criticize Rubio's initiative, neither did he say anything that might boost the senator's ongoing efforts to build support with conservatives and other Senate Republicans. Romney's language was tepid enough to disappoint and worry some in the party who hope that the GOP will rally around the proposal.

Even if Romney supports Rubio's legislation, that by itself is unlikely to undo all of the damage the former Massachusetts governor suffered with Hispanic voters during the GOP primaries, when he used immigration as a club to undermine his rivals' conservative credentials. In that effort, he pledged to veto the Democratic version of the Dream Act; praised the tough Arizona immigration-enforcement law (and said he would have dropped the federal lawsuit against it that the Supreme Court heard this week); and denounced any pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Instead, he said, he would pressure the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants to "self-deport" by stiffening enforcement of laws against hiring and aiding them.

The effect of all those proposals is evident in recent polls showing Obama, when matched against Romney, equaling (or exceeding) the two-thirds of the Hispanic vote that he won in 2008. In several of those surveys (such as last week's University of Phoenix/National Journal Next America Poll), Obama's share of the vote among Latinos notably exceeds his approval rating with them. That's a telling measure of how much Romney has alienated those voters, because it's unusual for a president to poll much above his approval rating with any group. Obama's current standing also represents a recovery from the Democrats' decline with Hispanics in the 2010 election. While Latinos are disappointed about the economy and disenchanted with Obama for not stressing immigration reform, "Republicans have to adopt a tone that clearly views Hispanics as a part of a center-right coalition and be very aggressive in their efforts to reach out," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who advises the right-leaning Hispanic Leadership Network.

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Ronald Brownstein is the editorial director of National Journal. More

Ronald Brownstein, a two-time finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for his coverage of presidential campaigns, is National Journal Group's editorial director, in charge of long-term editorial strategy. He also writes a weekly column and regularly contributes other pieces for both National Journal and The Atlantic, and coordinates political coverage and activities across publications produced by Atlantic Media.

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