The GOP's Fading Chances

Republicans appear incapable of nominating someone who can win the votes of independents in November.

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It's misleading to say that the state of the economy determines whether a president will win reelection. But it is fair to say that when a White House incumbent is running for a second term, the election is first and foremost a referendum on that president; the single most important factor that voters consider in assessing a president is the state and direction of the economy. That is the default factor unless something happens to shift a race's dynamic and make the election more like a choice than a referendum. At least, that's what I've always thought.

We do not know what the state and direction of the economy will be next fall. Without a doubt, the picture is better today than it was four or eight months ago. Still, very smart economists have widely divergent views on where the economy will be then. If the election were a referendum on President Obama and the economy four or eight months ago, he would have lost. If it were a referendum on Obama and the economy almost two weeks ago -- when his approval rating tipped up to 48 and 49 percent in the Gallup Poll, and 50 percent in ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and CNN surveys -- he probably would have won. (His Gallup numbers have since trended downward to 44 percent; the decline likely reflects more attention on rising gasoline prices.)

But now I wonder whether the economy will drive this election to the usual extent -- or to the extent I had thought. More specifically, will the Republican Party nominate a candidate who can credibly compete for the independent voters whose support is so important in general elections?

Independents represented 29 percent of the electorate in 2008. In last year's combined Gallup polls, though, they were 40 percent -- a record high. In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won the independent vote by 2 percentage points over Democrat Al Gore but narrowly lost the overall popular vote. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry actually carried independents by 1 point but lost the national popular vote by 3 points. The winner of the independent vote doesn't necessarily win the general election. But a candidate has to be very competitive among independents to have a chance to win. In 2008, the GOP's John McCain lost the independent vote by 8 percentage points and the election by 7 points.

Republicans should be concerned that Mitt Romney's numbers among independents have been tanking in recent weeks; he went from double-digit leads over Obama in some polls, including one by the Pew Research Center, to a 9-point deficit. He is considered the "most electable" Republican. If other GOP contenders have equally dismal or worse approval numbers among independents, you have to wonder whether this could end up as a choice election, with Republicans coming out on the losing end.

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Charlie Cook is editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report and a political analyst for National Journal.

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