In Nevada and other upcoming caucus states, Paul hopes his tireless minority can stage an upset. If they can't, he's probably finished.
PAHRUMP, Nev. -- In a Polynesian-themed former roller rink with bright-yellow walls and fuchsia patterned carpet, Ron Paul was making his last stand.
"It's always nice to come to Nevada," the slightly built congressman said from a podium, to wild cheering. "There are a lot of people here who believe in liberty."
Paul's right about that -- the rugged Western individualists that inhabit these desolate, brush-dotted lands make a receptive audience for his suspicious-of-government, leave-me-alone pitch.
But how big an audience? Paul has staked his campaign on staging upsets in Nevada on Saturday and the caucus states that follow in the next week -- Maine, Colorado and Minnesota. It is there, he hopes, that what he calls his "irate, tireless minority" can mobilize strongly enough to defy expectations, making up in fervor what it lacks in mass and swamping the straw-poll-style precinct meetings.
If he fails, it could be the end of the road.
Already, Paul's message-based candidacy has begun to recede from the foreground of the Republican race. Never mind becoming president. If his much-vaunted organization fails to live up to the hype again -- as in Iowa, the only caucus state to date, where Paul finished a disappointing third -- Paul could find himself failing in what often seems like a more prized goal, that of getting out his message of libertarian conservatism.
Here in Nevada, where his grassroots team has been active nonstop for the last four years, Paul's team does not lack for confidence.
"We have more IDs than Romney had votes in '08," said Paul's state chairman, Carl Bunce, meaning identified supporters who have committed to attend Saturday's caucuses across the state. He wouldn't give a precise number, but Romney's 2008 vote total in his big Nevada win was 22,649.
Nye County, home to this dusty outpost of about 35,000 souls (pronounced puh-RUMP) an hour west of Las Vegas, is Paul's friendliest turf in the state. It's home to numerous well-tolerated legal brothels, more testament to that libertarian spirit. A visit to the two brothels in the Pahrump area Friday afternoon, the Chicken Ranch and Sheri's Ranch, to see if the girls wanted to talk politics, met with polite demurrals from each place's leathery hostess, but the ladies from the Bunny Ranch, in the northern part of the state, have thrown their support behind Paul.
In 2008, Nye was the only county Paul managed to win, narrowly. He got 415 votes, or 34 percent, to Romney's 399 -- out of a little over 1,200 caucus-goers countywide. This time, his fans in Nye County are determined to outdo that result.
For months, a core group of about 40 Paulites has been meeting regularly in Pahrump and marching through town every Saturday, accompanied by a voter-registration truck bearing the legend: "FREEDOM'S LAST CHANCE: RON PAUL. REGISTER HERE." Sturdy, wood-framed Paul signs dot the landscape, without competition from any other candidate. The voter-registration truck, donated by a supporter, is a regular presence around town, often staffed by a group of members of the Red Hat Society, a social club for women over 50.
"In December, during the Christmas festival at the Pahrump Nugget [casino], we all did two-hour shifts," said 50-year-old Beth Rupp, one of the women. "There was a train ride for the kids, so we put Ron Paul balloons on the train, and of course they all wanted the balloons."
The town clerk, she said, has reported being stunned by the number of former Democrats and independents the Paulites have gotten to register as Republicans in order to caucus for Paul. The volunteers have netted 800 new registrations, according to Bunce.