Iowa in Turmoil Over GOP Presidential Pick

With just over 60 days until the Iowa caucuses, the state's Republican voters are a picture of anguished indecision


The candidates they like aren't trying to win their votes. The candidates working to win them over can't close the sale. In Iowa, Republicans are restless.

With just two months to go before the caucuses that kick off the primary voting season, operatives in Iowa say they've never seen such a peculiarly fluid political landscape. The caucus process is built for surprises, but this time, far more than usual, it really seems like anything could happen.

"I've been involved for a long time, and I don't recall one this unsettled a little more than 60 days out from the caucuses," said Richard Schwarm, a former state Republican Party chairman who advised Mitt Romney in 2008 but is neutral this time.

"It's going to come down to Governor Romney and a not-Governor-Romney candidate -- the question is, is it one or several," Schwarm said.

The turmoil in Iowa is a microcosm of the state of the Republican primary nationally: coming down to the wire, yet not quite seeming to gel.

A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend underscored the strangeness of the current situation in Iowa: Two candidates who've paid scant attention to the state, Herman Cain and Romney, were at the top of the standings with 23 and 22 percent of the vote respectively. Ron Paul had 12 percent and the rest were clustered in single-digit territory.

Perhaps most telling, just 25 percent of those surveyed said their minds were made up. The rest either had no chosen candidate or said they could be persuaded to change allegiances.

Every potential scenario for how it will play out sounds unlikely, yet one of them has to happen.

Romney could win despite turning his back on the state. Herman Cain could magically triumph despite an almost total lack of traditional campaign organization. Michele Bachmann could regain the mojo she's lost since her Ames straw poll win. Rick Perry could use his zillions of dollars to convince voters he's not as bad as they think.

Rick Santorum's hard work might finally pay off. Newt Gingrich's high-minded grouch act could find favor despite his lack of legwork. Heck, even Paul could pull off an upset: Despite his heterodox platform, he seems to have the best ground-level organization in the state at the moment.

"This is a season unlike any other I've ever seen. Nobody really has any boots on the ground yet," said Christopher Rants, a former state House speaker. "Everybody took this hiatus after the straw poll and just never geared back up again." A Romney supporter four years ago, Rants describes himself as "firmly uncommitted" at the moment.

Normally, there's a formula for winning the Iowa caucuses: Candidates nearly take up residence in the state, hire large staffs of field workers and diligently build a precinct-by-precinct operation in all 99 counties. Four years ago, both Romney and Mike Huckabee "could have registered to vote or pay taxes here," Rants said.

This time around, Romney has downplayed Iowa in favor of planting a flag in New Hampshire, where he's a clear favorite. In a presidential race where the big picture consists of Romney, the frontrunner who mostly leaves his party cold, and a squabbling crew of lesser figures straining to capture the anti-Romney vote, Iowa ought to be all the more significant: A Romney win there, combined with New Hampshire, would create a nearly unstoppable one-two punch, while a win for anyone else would seal that candidate's status as the Romney-slayer.

"If anyone is going to stop Romney, they'd better stop him here," Rants said. "It may be that none of them stop Romney here. If that's the case, who knows, I don't know what the people in South Carolina will say, but I don't think it goes very much farther than that."

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Molly Ball is a staff writer covering national politics at The Atlantic.

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