Can a Tea Party Republican Win a House Race in Los Angeles?

Odds are against it, but with gators, the Dodgers and gangs on the table as well as traditional social issues, today's special election to replace Jane Harman in California's 36th congressional district is about more than just party labels

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In California's 36th Congressional District, where I often ride my bicycle alongside the ocean, a Tuesday special election pits a liberal Los Angeles city councilwoman, Democrat Janice Hahn, against a tea-party-backed businessman, Republican Craig Huey. If the typical residents of the communities they're vying to represent paid more attention to off-year elections held in the summertime, they might be upset by their choices. Instead they're focused on outdoor grilling, gas prices, and the impending closure of the 405 Freeway, known locally as "The Carpocalypse" or "Carmageddon." All are more pressing matters than serving as civic guinea pigs.

That's what voters in the race are, thanks to Democrat Jane Harman. She held the seat for 10 years, successfully defended it during the 2010 midterms, and resigned shortly afterward to take a job as director of the Washington, D.C.,-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Due to the off-year vacancy, voters in the 36th became first to try California's new open primary system. It calls for all candidates to appear on the same ballot, and permits voters to cast a ballot for whomever they want. Unless someone wins a majority of the vote, the top two finishers advance to a runoff, even if they're both from the same political party.

The May 17, 2011 primary included five Democratic candidates, six Republicans, three Independents, a Libertarian, and a candidate from the Peace and Freedom Party, all competing in a district where Barack Obama beat John McCain 64.4 percent to 33.5 percent, John Kerry beat George W. Bush 59 percent to 39.6 percent, and Al Gore beat George W. Bush 50.7 percent to 44.3 percent. In Venice, Marina Del Ray, El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, San Pedro, Torrance, West Carson, Palos Verdes, and Wilmington, there are just a lot more blue households than red households. So would two Democrats emerge as the top vote-getters?


Here are the results that led to today's match-up:

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Will Debra Bowen voters back Hahn in the general election, or stay home, having been angered by barbs during the primary? That's the question on the minds of politically inclined observers in the district. 

Hahn, 59, is the clear favorite. She won more votes in the primary, raised more than a million dollars for her campaign, won endorsements from left-leaning interest groups, and enjoys the advantage of running in a place where Democrats have an 18-point registration edge. Her fundraising prowess comes as no surprise: her late father, Kenneth Hahn, was a longtime LA County Supervisor, and her brother, James Hahn, is a former mayor of Los Angeles. Huey, 61, has long been forging connections inside the Republican Party, has backing from multiple tea party groups, and amassed $840,000 himself, having lent his own campaign almost $700,000. It's a formidable enough effort that Nancy Pelosi told the Washington Post, "we're fighting hard" in California 36, and warned allies that a Democratic win won't be as easy "as people like to think." Perhaps she's attuned to the fact that very low turnout elections are ideal for long-shot challengers.  

For many who do vote, partisan affiliation will be the most important factor, which isn't necessarily a bad thing in this race. Neither candidate has any heterodox views that would surprise voters, and both are likely to vote the party line most of the time, if not all of the time. Someone who wants the tea party Republicans in Congress to wield a bit more power should vote for Huey. And a voter more inclined to increase Democratic clout should cast a ballot for Hahn.

It's really as simple as that. 

Watching the campaign unfold, you'd get a completely different impression, of course. It's being fought largely through glossy campaign mailers and Los Angeles-area television commercials and news reports. Consuming a lot of local TV coverage in LA is very useful if one wants to become an expert in high speed freeway chases. But more civic knowledge is gleaned from "Law & Order" reruns. Or "CSI Miami," to be honest. Here's an example of what LA TV broadcasters are focusing on in this election:

Call me crazy, but it seems totally reasonable to encourage former gang members to intervene as peacemakers in street conflicts, doesn't it? Whether it works or not, I have no idea, but I am uninclined to view it as attack ad material given that the issue isn't even likely to come up in Congress. In the campaign, it became prominent partly thanks to what is arguably the most offensive attack ad you'll ever see, and that both candidates have denounced in the strongest terms.

It didn't air on television for reasons that'll soon be obvious:

This is why normal people hate politics. Pay attention to your average congressional campaign and you end up feeling dirty. The guy who produced it, Ladd Ehlinger, Jr., wanted to air something so offensive it would get people talking about the gang program controversy again. Mission accomplished. All it took was a man corroding his soul and denigrating blacks and women for a small advantage in an off-year special election. 

Voters should ignore the issue. 

As noted, the best bet is picking the congressional party you'd rather advantage and voting accordingly. But what if, like me, you're disgusted with both parties in Congress, and unsure which is worse? Are the Republicans being savvy about debt ceiling negotiations, or are they really so irresponsible as to risk default? Would more tea party Republicans help stop the illegal war we're waging in Libya, and prevent Obama from future executive overreach? Or not? Who can tell?

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Conor Friedersdorf is a staff writer at The Atlantic, where he focuses on politics and national affairs. He lives in Venice, California, and is the founding editor of The Best of Journalism, a newsletter devoted to exceptional nonfiction.

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