Dem Pollster Raises Possibility of Walker Recall

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Voters can't attempt to recall Gov. Scott Walker until he's served for at least a year, but a Democratic polling firm says there's enough support right now for a recall petition to succeed.

34 percent of Wisconsin voters would sign a petition to recall Walker, according to a survey of 806 voters by Strategic Telemetry, the Democratic polling and microtargeting firm run by Wisconsin native Ken Strasma.

One big caveat: Strasma is a Democratic strategist who has done microtargeting for the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and John Kerry. While he told me he conducted this poll on his on initiative (not at the behest of a Democratic client), it's worth keeping in mind that the poll appears designed for news value.

In order to recall Walker, his opponents would need to garner a number of petitions equal to 25 percent of the 2010 electorate. (See Wisconsin recall guidelines here.) At that point, Walker wouldn't be removed; he'd simply have to run for the governorship again. No Wisconsin official is eligible for recall until they've served for one year (Walker was sworn into office last month), so, while his critics are calling for a recall, it can't happen until January 2012).

Presumably, the budget fight will be long over by then, and momentum for a Walker recall will have died down.

Strasma extrapolated (based on district-level microtargeting indices for progressivism and willingness to engage in political action) to find that ample voters would be willing to sign recall petitions for eight Republican state senators. They wouldn't be eligible for recall until January 2012, either, even if they've served previous terms. [UPDATE: Strasma e-mails to say the GOP senators in his poll are eligible for recall: "... the eight GOP senators listed are the ones subject immediate recall.  WI has staggered four year State Senate terms, so half of the Senators are up each year.  The eight who were first elected or reelected in 2008 are subject to recall at any time.  The ones elected in 11/10 would not be subject to recall until 1/12."]

Find the survey report below:

Walker_Budget_Survey_022811
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Chris Good is a political reporter for ABC News. He was previously an associate editor at The Atlantic and a reporter for The Hill.

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