On paper, Tuesday's announcement of congressional reapportionment numbers by the U.S. Census Bureau should be an early Christmas present for Republicans. Nowhere was the GOP's triumph on Election Day more complete than in state legislatures, where Republicans picked up some 680 seats.
Because state lawmakers control the once-a-decade redrawing of congressional maps in most states, that puts Republicans in a position to decide the boundaries of about 194 House districts, more than double the number they controlled last cycle. Instead of popping the champagne corks, though, some GOP leaders are warning about the perils of too much cartographical authority.
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"When we push for an overreach, it can backfire," said Rep. Lynn Westmoreland of Georgia, who is overseeing redistricting for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "You can't take the politics out of redistricting, but the overreach is a danger that sometimes states with complete control try to do. We're going to try to discourage any kind of overreach."
A prime example of what Westmoreland is hoping to avoid: Pennsylvania, where Republicans held the reins in the last redistricting. But the political boundaries they so painstakingly fashioned hardly produced a stable gain for the party. In the 107th Congress, before the new map took effect, the Keystone State's delegation had 10 Democrats and 11 Republicans. The state lost two seats in that redistricting, and the GOP plan initially gave Republicans a decided advantage: They held 12 of Pennsylvania's House seats to seven for the Democrats in the 108th Congress.
But the oscillating electorate soon reversed that advantage, and then reversed it again. After the 2006 elections that gave Democrats control of the House, Democrats held 11 of the state's 19 seats in the chamber. But they will give their in-state majority back when the new Congress takes office next month, and Republicans again hold 12 of Pennsylvania's House seats.
The lesson from Pennsylvania, for both parties, is to pad safe districts, funneling voters from the opposition party into as few districts as possible, rather than go for the maximum number of winnable seats. The temptation to grow overly aggressive can be even greater in swing states, where the parties try to gain more congressional seats instead of opting to consolidate and defend. That creates districts where the electorates are closely divided and lawmakers are vulnerable to every shift in the voting trends--a situation that has been especially pronounced in the last three election cycles, when Democrats picked up 55 seats in two consecutive elections only to see all of their gains (and then some) wiped out in November.
Experts say that the GOP should keep those lessons in mind as it flexes its freshly won muscle.
"It's an embarrassment of riches for the Republicans," said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at George Mason University who studies redistricting. "Usually what you'd want to do with the redistricting plan is expand the map; but I think the Republicans are going to be in a position to just protect what they've gained in 2010 rather than to expand. The Republicans have pretty much maxed out the number of seats that they can win. If anything, they've won too many seats, because many of these Republicans have won in Democratic-leaning seats and they're going to have to shore them up."