Public Policy Polling has accurately predicted a couple of tough primaries this election cycle, so it's probably a bad sign for Democrats in Wisconsin that the firm shows them trailing in both the Senate and governor's races.

Ron Johnson, a businessman and political outsider whom George Will wrote "is what the Tea Party looks like," leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold 52 - 41 percent, while Republican Scott Walker leads the governor's race 50 - 14 percent, according to the firm's latest survey.

Wisconsin is one of a handful of swing states where Republicans lead in Senate races: Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire are all leaning Republican at the moment.

Wisconsin's two most competitive House races are both for seats held by Democrats, and Republicans lead both of them.

In the 7th District seat in Northwestern Wisconsin, being vacated by retiring Appropriations Chairman David Obey, an automated poll by Illinois-based We Ask America showed top GOP recruit (and former Real World participant) Sean Duffy leading state Sen. Julie Lassa (D) 42 - 33 percent in early August. In the 8th District seat, which encompasses Green Bay, sophomore Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen may have dodged a bullet when Tea Partying roofing contractor Reid Ribble won the primary to challenge him, but a GOP poll by Virginia-based Ayres McHenry showed Ribble leading Kagen 49 - 39 percent in mid August.

Wisconsin voted 56 - 43 percent for President Obama in 2008.