Why Warren's a Cinch

I have learned the hard way that it doesn't pay to make predictions. So instead of predicting that Elizabeth Warren will be chosen to lead the new consumer protection agency (which she should be), I will simply note this snippet from today's Washington Post profile laying out the political consequences of the decision, which illuminates why Warren should be a cinch for the job: because regardless of what happens once she's chosen, the administration will find itself in a better position:

If Obama doesn't choose her, he risks infuriating his already-agitated liberal supporters who see Warren as the only logical candidate

If he gives her the nod, Obama risks deepening the financial community's distrust of his administration and sparking a confirmation fight. He would be elevating a woman who, despite her mild manner, has repeatedly proven herself a thorn in the administration's side during her tenure as watchdog over the government's $700 billion bank bailout program.

If I worked in the White House, I'd regard the possibility of "sparking a confirmation fight" the way Br'er Rabbit regarded the briar patch.

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Joshua Green is a former senior editor at The Atlantic.

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