Republican Expectations in Washington

As Washington state holds its "jungle" primaries tonight (with all candidates engaged in battles royale, the top two advancing to the November ballot in each race), Washington-state-based political consultant/blogger/analyst Liz Mair has polled about 20 state Republican insiders on how they think tonight's primaries will turn out. Mair has results for all the big races, but here are her findings on the Senate contest, featuring Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, GOP challenger Dino Rossi, and the Sarah-Palin-and-Ron-Paul-endorsed former NFL tight end Clint Didier:

The figures below represent the average of the numbers respondents provided in respect of each race.  In square brackets is the highest number predicted; in parentheses is the lowest number predicted.  Some of the more interesting comments offered by respondents in relation to each race are also set out below the average numbers (please note that the overwhelming majority of respondents did not comment, merely offered numbers).

WA-Sen:

Didier: 13% [18%] (10%)

Murray: 45% [48%] (42%)

Rossi: 31% [40%] (23%)

"My guess - and that's exactly what it is - is that every single tea-party activist will vote... those who discount Clint are fooling themselves. He's the male Sarah Palin of Washington State... He will be the face of the tea-party coming out of this primary." -- Respondent A

"I bet Dino gets 60% [among GOP voters]." -- Respondent B

Averages are pretty close to the latest major poll, from Public Policy Polling, which shows Murray at 47%, Rossi at 33%, and Didier at 10%.

Read the full post at Liz Mair's blog.

Presented by

Chris Good is a political reporter for ABC News. He was previously an associate editor at The Atlantic and a reporter for The Hill.

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