Primary Polling Cheat Sheet

Here's a quick roundup of polling on the big primaries going on tomorrow in Florida, Arizona, and Alaska:

Florida Senate: Likely winner - Rep. Kendrick Meek. Meek leads billionaire Jeff Greene 39%-29% in a Quinnipiac poll released Monday morning, but a full 28% of 757 likely Democratic voters surveyed were undecided. Public Policy Polling shows Meek in a commanding lead at 51%-27%.

Florida Governor: Likely winner - Toss-up. Attorney General Bill McCollum leads Rick Scott 39%-35% in Quinnipiac polling released today, but 39% of Scott supporters and 27% of McCollum supporters say they could still change their minds. Mason-Dixon shows Scott McCollum leading 45%-36%.

Arizona Senate: Likely winner - Sen. John McCain. A wide edge goes to McCain in all major polls: Rasmussen shows him leading J.D. Hayworth 54%-34%, though major polling on the race has been scarce. A July Behavior Research Center poll only surveyed 190 Republicans, and the next-most-recent survey was conducted by Magellan Strategies in June.

Arizona Governor: Likely winner - Gov. Jan Brewer. The incumbent figures to run away with this after her closest opponent, Buz Mills, dropped out of the race in July. The last major poll was conducted by Rasmussen in June, showing Brewer at 61%, Mills at 16%, and State Treasurer Dean Martin at 12%.

Alaska Senate: Likely winner - Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski faces a primary challenge from Tea-Party-backed Joe Miller, but no major polls have been conducted on this race. Murkowski is, however, respected and well liked in Alaska, according to polling taken before her primary got underway: in April, 75% of Republicans said Murkowski deserves re-election in a relatively small-sample (400 Republicans, Democrats, and Independents combined) survey by Alaska-based Dittman Research. Miller, not as well established in Alaska politics, likely faces an uphill climb.