Chris Cillizza's Morning Fix reports new data from Gallup showing that independents now favor a generic Republican candidate for Congress over a generic Democrat by 12 points. Cillizza suspects President Obama is the culprit:

More than half (51 percent) of independent registered voters -- a more useful demographic slice when analyzing election outcomes -- disapprove of the job the president is doing and, of that group, more than seven in ten said they preferred a generic Republican candidate to a generic Democratic one.

Speaking of polls, Mike Allen's Playbook notes a Politico story about the possibly bogus ones The Daily Kos commissioned for the Arkansas Senate runoff last month and the effect the scandal has had on the media and the political establishment:

The prospect that polling data in a Senate contest of national consequence may have been faked has sent shockwaves across the campaign world, raising disturbing questions not only about the reliability of suddenly ubiquitous public polls, but about a new media environment where polling numbers are accepted without question even as they threaten to influence the outcome of campaigns.

Ezra Klein's Wonkbook points to the Wall Street Journal's report that the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee voted yesterday to eliminate the liability cap on oil companies for offshore spills. The cap removal would apply to BP retroactively, but faces opposition from small oil companies and various senators. The proposal may be rolled into a larger energy legislation package that could have trouble passing the Senate.

The Daily Beast's Cheat Sheet cites USA Today's account of the House's passage of the financial reform bill, 237-192. The Senate will vote on the bill after the Fourth of July holiday.

ABC's The Note links to a Los Angeles Times story recounting California's lack of a budget. The budget deadline was yesterday, but Governor Schwarzenegger and state legislators remain at an impasse on how to close a $19.1 billion deficit.