Democrats Lead in Generic House Polling

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That's what several major polls have found recently, flying in the face of all conventional wisdom about Republicans being poised to win many House seats and make a run at taking back the majority this November.


Public Policy Polling finds on Friday that Democrats have a 46%-43% advantage over Republicans in generic "which party will you vote for?" House ballot polling. (650 voters robo-polled June 4-7.)

This after ABC/Washington Post found Democrats at a 47%-44% advantage (1,004 adults live-interview polled June 3-6.)

And after Gallup found Democrats and republicans tied at 46% (average for polling in the week ending June 6). Economist/YouGov, meanwhile, finds Democrats ahead 45%-44% (carefully sampled online poll of 1,000, May 29-June 1.)

Here's the Pollster.com chart of generic House ballot polling. Rasmussen still has Republicans way ahead, holding the average in the GOP's favor.


The ABC/Post results were buried a bit beneath headlines and ledes about how bad things are for incumbents.

How did this happen? How are Democrats suddenly in the lead, according to all those polls listed above? And why isn't more being made of it? We'll keep an eye on these numbers for further developments.
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Chris Good is a political reporter for ABC News. He was previously an associate editor at The Atlantic and a reporter for The Hill.

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