A Word About Presidential Polling

This column will generally refrain from hyping any poll about health care or the president's approval ratings until next week, after the magnitude of this weekend's events have had time to settle in. But when we do, we will be paying attention to something other than the magic approval number. 

Gallup today has the gap between those who approve of Obama's job performance and those who disapprove at +9 -- his best in a while. The gap is important, because it reflects intensity as much as it does support. We will also be paying attention to the best way to measure base enthusiasm: the percentage of highly motivated voters in each party who say they will vote in November.  Likely voter models and the generic ballot question will be more important in July than they are now. Right now, the cartography of the president's approval rating will drive the composition of the electorate. 

Presented by

Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

How to Cook Spaghetti Squash (and Why)

Cooking for yourself is one of the surest ways to eat well. Bestselling author Mark Bittman teaches James Hamblin the recipe that everyone is Googling.

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register.

blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

How to Cook Spaghetti Squash (and Why)

Cooking for yourself is one of the surest ways to eat well.

Video

Before Tinder, a Tree

Looking for your soulmate? Write a letter to the "Bridegroom's Oak" in Germany.

Video

The Health Benefits of Going Outside

People spend too much time indoors. One solution: ecotherapy.

Video

Where High Tech Meets the 1950s

Why did Green Bank, West Virginia, ban wireless signals? For science.

Video

Yes, Quidditch Is Real

How J.K. Rowling's magical sport spread from Hogwarts to college campuses

Video

Would You Live in a Treehouse?

A treehouse can be an ideal office space, vacation rental, and way of reconnecting with your youth.

More in Politics

Just In