The First Big 2012 Straw Poll?

Will the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, slated for April 8-11 in New Orleans, be the first major cattle call of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination? Well, wouldn't every confabulation of Republicans want to claim that title? There've been several already. The SRLC is hosted by a dozen or so state Republican parties. Over the years, it has conducted, under various auspices, straw polls that have, by at least some measure, changed the early dynamics of the Republican presidential nomination quests for some of the candidates.

In 1998, George W. Bush won, followed by Steve Forbes, followed by Dan Quayle. Bush's win helped solidify his position as the expected establishment candidate. Forbes's second place finish proved he could purchase enough votes to place second in straw polls. Quayle was popular among social conservatives. The poll marked the beginning of the end of the presidential aspirations of John Ashcroft, the Missouri senator who hoped to use the event to attract notice and attention. 

The Hotline had the honor to conduct the 2006 straw poll. Fortunately for Bill Frist, the event was held in Memphis, TN. Unfortunately for Bill Frist, his team was scared to death that their guy wouldn't be able to win a heavily-covered event in his home state. He did -- by a small margin. Mitt Romney placed second, largely on the strength of organized support by groups like Evangelicals for Mitt. (Still to this day there is a debate about whether Romney somehow directly paid for his votes. I don't think he did, but some McCain folks will swear to it.) President Bush placed third -- John McCain attended the straw poll, only to suddenly announce that politics wasn't relevant during wartime and that volunteers should vote for Bush instead. 

Here's my standard for deciding whether the 2010 straw poll is important: if the people on the periphery of the presidential speculation matrix decide that it's worth attending, then you'll want to pay attention. Who might these folks be?  In order of importance: Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. (Santorum, I hear, is probably going to attend in some capacity.) Governor Bobby Jindal may attend in his capacity as governor.

Evangelicals for Mitt is once again attempting to scrounge up votes for Romney; Tim Pawlenty's political action committee has said that the Minnesota governor will attend. Mitt Romney is expected to announce his attendance shortly; Mike Huckabee will definitely be going; organizers hope that Sarah Palin shows up as well.

To spruce things up, the SRLC is sponsoring a New Media Challenge and has enlisted high profile GOP techies to judge. Speaking of sponsorship: Chevron is a major sponsor of the event, along with a variety of political trade entities.