Massachusetts Weather Forecasts: Wintry Mix, Chance Of Republican Victory

With the polls open in Massachusetts, voters will face some less-than-ideal weather as they turn out for the special Senate election today, and it looks as if the forecasts will favor Republican Scott Brown.

Bad weather, theoretically, should favor candidates whose bases are more enthusiastic, and it would appear that Brown's base is more keyed up for this election. The weather in Massachusetts today isn't terrible, however, by Massachusetts standards: temperatures are in the low thirties in counties across the state, with some precipitation.


But the bad weather--snow and wintry mix--is forecasted to hit Democratic strongholds almost exclusively, meaning that if those forecasts are correct throughout the afternoon and evening, Brown will have a significant weather advantage when it comes to turning out the Republican Base.

Coakley will have the advantage, however, when it comes to hometowns: her hometown of North Adams will get light snow, while Brown's hometown of Wakefield will get snow; Wrentham, which he represents in the state legislature, will get a wintry mix.

When it comes to strongholds for the party bases, Blue Mass Group identifies five key counties where the Democratic base resides, based to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index. All five of those counties will see precipitation, with temperatures between 30 and 33 degrees (all forecasts used in this post were taken from Weather.com).

According to forecasts, Boston will get a wintry mix, as will Cambridge and Somerville. Worcester and Brookline will get snow.

Republican counties, meanwhile, will stay dry and see warmer temperatures. The forecast is "cloudy" for five GOP stronghold districts, while Walpole is forecasted to see a wintry mix and North Andover is forecasted to see snow. Temps will range from 33 to 36 degrees.

Insofar as weather suppresses turnout statewide, the bad-weather effect is expected to help Brown, as his base appears more motivated--though Democrats have sought to amp up the motivation of their own supporters over the past few days by making it clear that Coakley's election is important to the national Democratic agenda.

Excited supporters have mobbed Brown at rallies, and Republicans are viewing this race as an opportunity to eliminate Democrats' 60-vote supermajority in the Senate. An automated Public Policy Polling survey showed 89 percent of Republicans "very excited" to vote in the election, vs. 63 percent of Democrats.