The Best Picture Of The 2008 Electorate To Date

More

It's taken about a year, but thanks to new Census numbers and to Project Vote, we now have the most accurate picture of who voted, who didn't vote, and how the voting patterns compare to previous elections.  The highlights: 64% of the 204 million voting-age Americans voted, up about 6 million in number and 4 percentage points from 2004.  Historically underrepresented groups made gains in this election.  Non-whites made up more than 90% of the increase in the total number of voters.  The authors conclude that had non-whites voted at the same percentage as whites, more than 5 million more votes would have been cast in 2008.  The study, by Douglas Hess and Jody Herman, finds that had voters under 30 voted at the same rates as their counterparts over 30, more than 7 million additional ballots would have been cast.


No wonder Republicans worry about a Democratic demographic storm.  Young voter turnout has increased at a rate of about 30% per general election since 2000. Indeed, the rate of increase was higher from 2000 to 2004 than from 2004 to 2008.  Women turned out at a higher rate than men.  Black men under 30 saw their participation rates increase by eight percentage points, Latino women and women under thirty grew by 6% and Asian women saw their participation rates grow by 13 points. Young black women voted at the highest rate among voters under 30 -- and the only turnout rate that exceed the voting rates by white people of any age.  White women under 30 voted at a rate of 52% -- higher than all but black women under 30.

Women outvoted men by 10 million; the rates of unmarried women and unmarried women are growing faster than their married counterparts, other variables held constant. Twenty million more people voted in 2008 than in 2000; unmarried women composed about 35% of the increase; unmarried men composed about 29%.  Despite all this, unmarried folks remain underrepresented.

No wonder Democrats worry about an off-year election. Not only does turnout itself drop -- usually about 15 percentage points through all demographic cleavages -- but it drops even higher for new voters and for younger voters.

No wonder Democrats and affiliated interest groups spent so much time trying to register the  young, the poor, the non-white -- and why this registration effort has become a political football. ACORN's voter registration arms tend to ferret out non-voters in communities that redound to the benefit of the Democratic Party.

For the first time in recorded memory, voting rates for those under 30 increased; voting rates for those over 30 did not.

Among the unregistered or non-voting, non-whites made up a disproportionate percentage of this group.  Latinos are still the most significantly under-registered group, making up 13% of the total number of unregistered adults and just 7% of the total number of voters.  There remains a lingering mistrust of voter registration efforts in parts of the Latino community, and there's a large number in this sub-group who are undocumented, making outreach efforts difficult and fraught with political controversy too.

Among income, about 30% of those making less than $25,000 a year were not registered to vote, compared to just 13% of those making more than $100,000 a year.

Jump to comments

Atlantic contributing editor Marc Ambinder is co-writing a book on national security and secrecy. More


Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

Video

More Video
Here's What Happens When You Light a Fire in Space


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Video

What Does It Take to Make Real Craft Gin?

Tour the Green Hat Gin distillery

Video

What Straights Can Learn From Same-Sex Couples

New insight from decades of research

Video

The End of the Mall Rat

A tribute to that pillar of teen culture

Video

The Wonderful World of Capitalism

An adorable 1950s cartoon

Video

New Yorkers: Miss New York USA

An unconventional beauty queen.

Writers

Up
Down

More in Politics

In Focus

Protests Spread Across Brazil

Just In