Biden In 2016: Don't Believe The Hype

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Bulletin!  Breaking News! Urgent! Flash! Stimulus: the Vice President goes to Iowa for a major Democratic function! Click. Whhr.  Response: he's thinking about running for president.  ...  We'll turn it into a question, just in case.


The prospect that Vice President Joe Biden will run for president in 2016 is remote, on the molecular level, for a multitude of reasons having to do with his age, his career, his desires, and his standing within the party. Now, the Iowa Democratic Party has invited him to host its annual Jefferson-Jackson fundraising dinner because he is, by virtue of his position, one of the most popular Democrats in the land, the vice-fundraiser in chief -- and, yes -- a man who, because he spent several cycles campaigning in Iowa for president, knows quite a few people there. The story isn't much more complicated than that, and linking his November, 21, 2008 appearance with 2016 ambitions obscures a very important intervening event: the 2012 general election.

"Hasn't anyone looked at a general election map to identify the 10 most swingable swing states for 2012 ... And noticed where Iowa ranks on said map?" a vice presidential adviser says.

(In point of fact, getting the 2014 or 2015 J-J invitation would be an indication that Biden has given 2016 a remote thought.)

So -- Biden's visit has 100% to do with raising money for 2010 and reminding Iowans about the Obama-Biden ticket in 2012, if it has anything to do with presidential politics whatsoever.
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Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

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