9.7 Percent Unemployment: What Does It Mean For Democrats?

Unemployment rose from 9.4 percent to 9.7 percent today, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' new numbers. At the Business Channel, Dan Indiviglio says this looks ugly, but isn't really so terrible. From the White House's perspective, it's not that terrible either.

A .3 percent climb in unemployment shows that the economy isn't rebounding quite yet. Last month, the figure shrank by one tenth of one percentage point. That briefly suspended the political conversation about unemployment that's been going on every month since President Obama took office.

A climb in unemployment today may look like a kick in the pants for Democrats at the end of a difficult August recess. But 9.7 percent is still under the double-digit mark that Obama, the Fed, and numerous other forecasters have long predicted unemployment will reach by the end of the year. In that regard, things are still better than expected.

10 percent is the important mark, politically. It's where the expectations have been set, and it would make for grabbing headlines that encapsulate just how bad the economy is. It's unclear how much injury this will inflict on the Democratic Party.

At that point, the White House will explain that it's been predicted for a long time and unemployment is a lagging indicator of an economic crisis that started under the Bush administration--the talking points for which it may already have tuned in anticipation--and accusations of mismanagement will fly from the right.

The economy is expected to play a big role in the 2010 elections, with Democrats bearing the brunt of a worsening situation. That'll depend a lot on the duration of the decline, just how bad things get, and what direction they're heading as November 2010 approaches. Right now, 9.7 percent doesn't tell us a whole lot about how that will play out.