Another Estimate Of The Kennedy Health Care Bill

More

Another new score of the health care bill that will feature Sen. Ted Kennedy's name concludes that it will achieve its goal of providing nearly every American with health insurance, but not without significant costs.

The report, by HSI, a private health care consultancy, was obtained by the Atlantic from a Congressional source.

HSI estimates that 99% of Americans would have health insurance if the full provisions of the bill are made law. HSI, which has done work for insurance companies and for the presidential campaign of Sen, John McCain, also estimates that, with a so-called "public plan" attached, 78 million Americans would abandon their private health insurance plan for the public plan, which would pay providers using the Medicare-rate-plus-ten percent formula.

The group used the ACROLA method to score the plan, which, I confess, I don't know much about but which seems to be reliable, if broad.

I'm going to give short notice only to the HSI score of the cost of the plan -- $4 trillion over ten years --, in part because the draft released by the HELP committee doesn't include a number of revenue-enhancing or saving measures that we know will be included. Still, HSI estimates that ending the employer-sponsored health care tax exclusion would save, at most, $300 billion over ten years. That's the normal estimate.

So how does HSI get $4 trillion?  They're assuming that the bill ultimately subsidizes premiums for Americans making up to 500% of the poverty level, and that the public plan is robust and well-utilized.

Jump to comments
Presented by

Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

A Technicolor Time-Lapse of Alaska's Northern Lights

The beauty of aurora borealis, as seen from America's last frontier


Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

A Time-Lapse of Alaska's Northern Lights

The beauty of aurora borealis, as seen from America's last frontier

Video

What Do You Wish You Learned in College?

Ivy League academics reveal their undergrad regrets

Video

Famous Movies, Reimagined

From Apocalypse Now to The Lord of the Rings, this clever video puts a new spin on Hollywood's greatest hits.

Video

What Is a City?

Cities are like nothing else on Earth.

Video

CrossFit Versus Yoga: Choose a Side

How a workout becomes a social identity

Video

In Online Dating, Everyone's a Little Bit Racist

The co-founder of OKCupid shares findings from his analysis of millions of users' data.

Writers

Up
Down

More in Politics

Just In