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An Honest Budget
By
In prepping Washington for its budget surgery, the administration has treated us to an abdominal sonogram. Some of the viscera -- tax increases, some cuts -- are visible now, but the outline itself is fuzzy.
Politically, a lot of the questions the Beltway wants to know -- will it kill the Bush tax cuts (yes), will it keep the estate tax (yes), will it incorporate costs from Afghanistan and Iraq (yes) -- have been answered.
But there's a lot we don't know.
I asked David Walker, the U.S. former comptroller-general who is president of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, what would constitute a budget that is honest and serious about discipline and reform. These are his queries:
Does the budget go out at least 10 years? [Ed note: We know it goes out at least five....]
What type of annual growth rate in spending is assumed?
If budget savings are forecast, then what specific proposals are the basis for such savings?
What is being proposed in connection with expiring provisions (e.g., Bush tax cuts) and an AMT fix? [Ed note: we know that Obama will let the tax cuts for upper income brackets expire, and that the money will be used to help reduce the deficit in half by 2013]
What is being proposed with the regard to the temporary assistance provisions in the stimulus bill?
What new initiatives are proposed and what is the basis for any related budget estimates? [Ed note: there are hints that Obama has endorsed a down payment of sorts for his health reform plan; the money would come in theory, from the cancellation of Medicare Advantage, and other unspecified offsets.]
How long do they assume the recession will last?
What additional bailout, assistance, stimulus or other proposals are included?
What economic growth rates are assumed for the next few years and as an ultimate assumptions?**
What spending reforms he'll propose are also unknown.
Obama has promised a "Grand Bargain," wherein his administration will apply long-term fixes to entitlements and the health care system in exchange for some sacrifice, such as bowing to the reality of higher premiums for a much-expanded Medicare program.
Politically, a lot of the questions the Beltway wants to know -- will it kill the Bush tax cuts (yes), will it keep the estate tax (yes), will it incorporate costs from Afghanistan and Iraq (yes) -- have been answered.
But there's a lot we don't know.
I asked David Walker, the U.S. former comptroller-general who is president of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, what would constitute a budget that is honest and serious about discipline and reform. These are his queries:
Does the budget go out at least 10 years? [Ed note: We know it goes out at least five....]
What type of annual growth rate in spending is assumed?
If budget savings are forecast, then what specific proposals are the basis for such savings?
What is being proposed in connection with expiring provisions (e.g., Bush tax cuts) and an AMT fix? [Ed note: we know that Obama will let the tax cuts for upper income brackets expire, and that the money will be used to help reduce the deficit in half by 2013]
What is being proposed with the regard to the temporary assistance provisions in the stimulus bill?
What new initiatives are proposed and what is the basis for any related budget estimates? [Ed note: there are hints that Obama has endorsed a down payment of sorts for his health reform plan; the money would come in theory, from the cancellation of Medicare Advantage, and other unspecified offsets.]
How long do they assume the recession will last?
What additional bailout, assistance, stimulus or other proposals are included?
What economic growth rates are assumed for the next few years and as an ultimate assumptions?**
What spending reforms he'll propose are also unknown.
Obama has promised a "Grand Bargain," wherein his administration will apply long-term fixes to entitlements and the health care system in exchange for some sacrifice, such as bowing to the reality of higher premiums for a much-expanded Medicare program.
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