Q-PAC Poll: Obama + 9

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Again -- don't obsess about each individual poll; Newsweek had Obama up four in the mid-forties. Quinnipiac's latest national survey, out this morning, has Obama hitting 50% of a likely voter sample, up nine, against McCain.

Obama leads McCain among women by 19 points; McCain leads Obama among white voters by 7 points. Obama's leading among voters 18 to 34 -- note the TV-friendly demographic -- by 32 points. They tie among votes over 55.

In "swing" states, Obama leads McCain by 11 points. In GOP-leaning states -- where Bush won by more than five points over Kerry in '04 -- McCain leads by three.

Independents are split. The economy is the top issue -- 53% say it is. Iraq is the most important to 16%, and a partisan split is emerging on what to do.

Again: Obama leads among those who cite the war as their top concern, but Americans are split about what to do.

Note: be wary of likely voter screens at this early stage; registered voters are usually a bit more palatable. The survey, taken July 8-13, sampled more than 1,700 voters via telephone and has a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent. The overall head-to-head numbers push leaners.

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Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

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