Head to Head

Is Barack Obama doomed in a matchup with John McCain among the demographic groups where he did poorly against Hillary Clinton? The AP says not really:

Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton -- whites who have not completed college -- he's doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates.

The key fact here is "doing about the same" with whites who lack a college degree as Al Gore and John Kerry. Gore and Kerry both lost narrowly, but they lost. On the other hand, though they both lost, they lost narrowly. I think it's totally feasible to win the presidency without improving on the Gore/Kerry performance among this demographic group (you'd have to make up the ground elsewhere), but it's hard for me to see how it would be viable to slip further behind and still win.

Presented by

Matthew Yglesias is a former writer and editor at The Atlantic.

Google Street View, Transformed Into a Tiny Planet

A 360-degree tour of our world, made entirely from Google's panoramas

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register.

blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Google Street View, Transformed Into a Tiny Planet

A 360-degree tour of our world, made entirely from Google's panoramas

Video

The 86-Year-Old Farmer Who Won't Quit

A filmmaker returns to his hometown to profile the patriarch of a family farm

Video

Riding Unicycles in a Cave

"If you fall down and break your leg, there's no way out."

Video

Carrot: A Pitch-Perfect Satire of Tech

"It's not just a vegetable. It's what a vegetable should be."

Video

The Benefits of Living Alone on a Mountain

"You really have to love solitary time by yourself."

More in Politics

Just In