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The Electoral Map: NBC News's take
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Chuck Todd and Tim Russert take a stab at electoral combinatorics today -- read here before you read on.
In general, I think that NBC's analysis is as good as it gets here.
Note that McCain's base is larger if Clinton is the nominee, but his route to victory is a little thornier. With Obama as the nominee, Virginia and Colorado are tossups; with Clinton as the nominee, they lean to McCain. Clinton keeps Florida as a tossup, while Obama seems less competitive.
I agree that New Jersey is less solidly in the Dem column if Obama is the nominee.
I'd quibble with the placement of Pennsylvania: Chuck and Tim believe it to be a tossup for both Clinton and Obama matchups, but I'd give the edge to Clinton (i.e., by making it a lean Clinton state), although McCain could certainly make it competitive. I also think that New Mexico is a pure tossup regardless of who the Democratic nominee is; I do agree with Clinton as the nominee, Nevada leans toward McCain, while with Obama as the nominee, it's a tossup. Provocatively, Chuck and Tim make Mississippi only a McCain-leaning state if Obama's the nominee. I think that's probably right.
What do you think?
In general, I think that NBC's analysis is as good as it gets here.
Note that McCain's base is larger if Clinton is the nominee, but his route to victory is a little thornier. With Obama as the nominee, Virginia and Colorado are tossups; with Clinton as the nominee, they lean to McCain. Clinton keeps Florida as a tossup, while Obama seems less competitive.
I agree that New Jersey is less solidly in the Dem column if Obama is the nominee.
I'd quibble with the placement of Pennsylvania: Chuck and Tim believe it to be a tossup for both Clinton and Obama matchups, but I'd give the edge to Clinton (i.e., by making it a lean Clinton state), although McCain could certainly make it competitive. I also think that New Mexico is a pure tossup regardless of who the Democratic nominee is; I do agree with Clinton as the nominee, Nevada leans toward McCain, while with Obama as the nominee, it's a tossup. Provocatively, Chuck and Tim make Mississippi only a McCain-leaning state if Obama's the nominee. I think that's probably right.
What do you think?
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