On Expectations And Pennsylvania

There seems to be a developing consensus in the media about the confusing expectations game that both candidates are likely to play tonight. If Clinton wins big -- and by big, they mean, by double digits -- then it will be permissible to write that many Democrats harbor grave doubts about Obama and are taking a second look at Clinton. Why double digits? Clinton needs to exceed the margin of victory that she'd get if the demographics of the state were dispositive. A small Clinton victory will be interpreted as a sign that Obama has held his own, that Democratic voters are less concerned about "bitter"/Rev. Wright than they are about consolidating around a nominee. An Obama victory means that Clinton withdraws, preferably within the next few days; a tie means roughly the same thing.