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A Rush To Judgement About The Rush Effect
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In order to at least even begin to answer the question in the affirmative, wouldn't we have a good sense of the percentage of Republicans who normally vote in competitive Democratic primaries after the Republican has won...across states and across cycles?
We don't have that data.
Dave Wiegel notices that before the Rush crusade began, fewer Republicans voted in the Democratic primary in Wisconsin than they did after, when a higher percentage voted in Texas. The correlation-not-causation conflation notwithstanding, Wisconsin is very different from Texas!
It's also not implausible that a certain percentage of Reagan Democrats-turned-Republicans support Clinton; what's the gender breakdown? If it's more female than male, perhaps we may want to revise or least append the theory that El Rushbo is driving turnout. (B. Smith notices that Limbaugh doesn't take credit for Mississippi.)
We don't have that data.
Dave Wiegel notices that before the Rush crusade began, fewer Republicans voted in the Democratic primary in Wisconsin than they did after, when a higher percentage voted in Texas. The correlation-not-causation conflation notwithstanding, Wisconsin is very different from Texas!
It's also not implausible that a certain percentage of Reagan Democrats-turned-Republicans support Clinton; what's the gender breakdown? If it's more female than male, perhaps we may want to revise or least append the theory that El Rushbo is driving turnout. (B. Smith notices that Limbaugh doesn't take credit for Mississippi.)
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