Wisconsin Ground Rules

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It's not a red state, and it's not a caucus, so it might count. But it's an open primary, so it's suspect. Basically that means that if Obama wins it doesn't count, but if Clinton wins it counts double. My prediction: Surprise Clinton win as complacent Obama supporters don't bother to turn out in the cold. This will pave the way to the ultimate vindication of my "Clinton will win" prediction of a week or so ago.

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Matthew Yglesias is a former writer and editor at The Atlantic.

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