What The Polls Say About Feb. 5.

For one thing, Barack Obama has gained millions of supporters across the country since Iowa, while Hillary Clinton has largely kept her support base in tact.

CBS News
and CNN released new surveys showing what amounts to a tied race. CBS has the race tied at 41; CNN, which seemed to push its undecideds to express a preference, has Obama leading 49 to 46, at the edge of the margin of error.

Obama is doing better among men and has narrowed Hillary Clinton's edge among women. Though Clinton still leads identified Democrats, the lead is small, and Obama beats her among independents.

A huge caveat from the CBS poll: when the sample is reduced to those in Super Tuesday states, Clinton leads 49 to 31.

Among Republicans, John McCain has broken through that 35% ceiling. He leads Mitt Romney 46 to 23, a margin that's similar to CNN's, which shows McCain leading 44 to 29.

CNN found that Democrats believe that Hillary Clinton would be better at handling the economy and health care problems than Obama, though both would equally as adept handling illegal immigration. A majority of Democrats believe Obama would better handle Iraq than Clinton. The poll finds no difference among blacks and whites when asked whether Clinton understands the problems of African Americans -- 75% say yes -- but 46% of black Democrats, compared to 35% of white Democrats believe her campaign brought up race in an offensive manner.

By the way: 79% of Democrats would be very or somewhat satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 85% would be very to somewhat satisfied if Obama won the nomination. Among Republicans, 71% would be very to somewhat satisfied if McCain won the nomination (take that Rush!), while 62% would be v to s s if Romney prevailed.

65% of Democrats who support a candidate say they support that candidate strongly. For Republicans, the figure is 47%.

Hello Democrats: 52% believe that the US is making progress in Iraq.

Presented by

Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

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