Supers

I tend to think that Barack Obama will have an edge in persuading superdelegates to come his way...on the thought that if those supers were really thinking about voting for Clinton, they would have cast their lot with them already.

But reader Chuck Thies has a different, and more persuasive scenario:

He writes:

Tere are apx. 299 Super Delegates committed to date.

CNN* has it at 193 HRC, 106 BHO.
NYT** has it at HRC 202, BHO 96.

For the sake of argument, we'll use the CNN numbers that favor Oprama.

There are apx. 842 Supers.

541 remain uncommitted. Making up a 90 point deficit with 543 votes on the table is tough.

BHO will have to win 316 to 226 just to tie.

AND...

According to ABC News*** on Dec. 28 HRC had 158, BHO 89. The CNN count today is HRC 193, BHO 106. That means in the same amount of time HRC gained 35, BHO 17.

During January when BHO had "The MO," HRC beat him 2-to-1 on Super pick ups.



*http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D

**http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/leading-among-the-unpledged/

***http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4060224