Inevitable

I see a frequent email correspondent has accused me of being one of several pundits who are falling for an "inevitability of Barack schtick again." I plead innocent. I'm proud to say that I spent the days between Iowa and New Hampshire warning that Hillary was by no means dead, and one week ago I predicted that Hillary Clinton would win. My argument at that time was based on the idea that even though Obama was favored in each of the remaining February contests that it was likely he would suffer at least one momentum-breaking loss leading up to Clinton wins in Texas and Ohio that put her over the top.

Thus far, it looks like Obama really will pull off the sweep, which is good for him. But the most recent poll of Ohio shows Clinton with a big lead, and considering the convincing nature of Clinton's wins in states like Arizona, Oklahoma, and California I think you need to assume she'll win there until we see some kind of poll offering clear evidence to the contrary. Obama's put together a string of impressive wins, but it's still the case that in the Democratic Party women outnumber men, whites outnumber blacks, working class people outnumber college educated professionals, and senior citizens outnumber under-thirties. Under the circumstances, Clinton continues to be in a strong position.